UFC 7: The Brawl in Buffalo: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Marco Ruas (4-2) taking on Paul Varelans (4-4).

Ruas is rated at 1142 — 158 points above Varelans's 985. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ruas's submission artist game against Varelans's knockout artist approach. Ruas is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Varelans is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Varelans throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Varelans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ruas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Varelans over Marco Ruas. The model is firm on this one: Varelans at 78%.

The Open Weight matchup features Ken Shamrock (6-5) taking on Oleg Taktarov (6-2).

Taktarov carries a modest Elo edge (1272 to 1231), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shamrock throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Shamrock is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Taktarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ken Shamrock over Oleg Taktarov. The model gives Shamrock a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Marco Ruas (4-2) taking on Remco Pardoel (3-2).

Ruas carries a modest Elo edge (1142 to 1072), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ruas throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pardoel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Ruas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Remco Pardoel over Marco Ruas. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pardoel at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Open Weight matchup features Paul Varelans (4-4) taking on Mark Hall (4-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hall at 1119 versus Varelans at 985. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Varelans throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Varelans over Mark Hall. The model is firm on this one: Varelans at 83%.

The Open Weight matchup features Marco Ruas (4-2) taking on Larry Cureton (0-2).

Ruas is rated at 1142 — 410 points above Cureton's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ruas throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cureton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ruas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marco Ruas over Larry Cureton. The model is firm on this one: Ruas at 92%.

The Open Weight matchup features Remco Pardoel (3-2) taking on Ryan Parker (0-1).

Pardoel is rated at 1072 — 204 points above Parker's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pardoel throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pardoel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Parker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Remco Pardoel over Ryan Parker. The model is firm on this one: Pardoel at 91%.

The Open Weight matchup features Mark Hall (4-3) taking on Harold Howard (1-2).

Hall is rated at 1119 — 357 points above Howard's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Howard throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Howard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Hall over Harold Howard. We're leaning Hall here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Paul Varelans (4-4) taking on Gerry Harris (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Varelans at 985 versus Harris at 850. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Varelans throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Varelans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Varelans over Gerry Harris. The model is firm on this one: Varelans at 90%.

The Open Weight matchup features Scott Bessac (1-1) taking on David Hood (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bessac at 960 versus Hood at 834. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hood throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Bessac over David Hood. We're leaning Bessac here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Onassis Parungao (1-0) taking on Francesco Maturi (0-1).

Parungao is rated at 1191 — 382 points above Maturi's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maturi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Maturi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Maturi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Onassis Parungao over Francesco Maturi. The model gives Parungao a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Joel Sutton (2-0) taking on Geza Kalman (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sutton at 1287 versus Kalman at 1147. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kalman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kalman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kalman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joel Sutton over Geza Kalman. The model is firm on this one: Sutton at 77%.