UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Saturday, February 28, 2026·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico
Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%Upcoming
Flyweight
Moreno 48%52% Kavanagh
Method Prediction
KO 24%Sub 16%Dec 60%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +386(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Kavanagh)
Bantamweight
Vera 33%67% Martinez
Method Prediction
KO 32%Sub 18%Dec 50%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +235(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Martinez)
Lightweight
Zellhuber 49%51% Green
Method Prediction
KO 34%Sub 17%Dec 49%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -94(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Green)
Flyweight
Chairez 49%51% Bunes
Method Prediction
KO 23%Sub 20%Dec 57%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +15(favors Chairez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Chairez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Bunes)
Flyweight
Rodriguez 53%47% Borjas
Method Prediction
KO 21%Sub 23%Dec 56%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +121(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Borjas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Borjas)
Bantamweight
Luna 76%24% Pacheco
Method Prediction
KO 34%Sub 37%Dec 29%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +225(favors Luna)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Pacheco)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pacheco)
Middleweight
Gandra 60%40% Medina
Method Prediction
KO 32%Sub 31%Dec 37%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +322(favors Gandra)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Medina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Medina)
Women's Bantamweight
Perez 70%30% Chiasson
Method Prediction
KO 23%Sub 25%Dec 52%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Perez)
Bantamweight
Quinonez 68%32% Moutinho
Method Prediction
KO 31%Sub 21%Dec 48%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +173(favors Quinonez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Moutinho)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Quinonez)
Featherweight
Andrade 41%59% Reyes
Method Prediction
KO 44%Sub 20%Dec 36%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +145(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Andrade)
Catch Weight
Rivera 52%48% Kareckaite
Method Prediction
KO 35%Sub 30%Dec 35%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +1(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Kareckaite)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Kareckaite)
Featherweight
Silva 21%79% Marshall
Method Prediction
KO 25%Sub 34%Dec 41%
STRONG
→Elo gap: -96(favors Marshall)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Marshall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Silva)
Middleweight
Pinas 56%44% Schultz
Method Prediction
KO 33%Sub 28%Dec 39%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Schultz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Schultz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Schultz)