UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Saturday, February 28, 2026·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico·13 fights
Model: 9/13(69%)
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Main Card
FlyweightMISS
Lone'er Kavanagh won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Kavanagh 48%52% Moreno
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -517(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Kavanagh)
BantamweightHIT
David Martinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martinez 75%25% Vera
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -268(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Vera)
LightweightMISS
King Green won by KO/TKO (R2)
Green 20%80% Zellhuber
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
STRONGMarket: 23% (-3.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +115(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Green)
FlyweightHIT
Edgar Chairez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Chairez 71%29% Bunes
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -25(favors Bunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Chairez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Bunes)
FlyweightHIT
Imanol Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rodriguez 87%13% Borjas
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+8.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +138(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Borjas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Borjas)
BantamweightHIT
Santiago Luna won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Luna 88%12% Pacheco
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
STRONGMarket: 86% (+2.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +356(favors Luna)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Pacheco)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pacheco)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Ryan Gandra won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gandra 65%35% Medina
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +423(favors Gandra)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Medina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Medina)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Ailin Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 63%37% Chiasson
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 62% (+0.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +108(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Perez)
BantamweightHIT
Cristian Quinonez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Quinonez 89%11% Moutinho
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +232(favors Quinonez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Moutinho)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Quinonez)
FeatherweightMISS
Javier Reyes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Reyes 49%51% Andrade
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -212(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Andrade)
Catch WeightMISS
Regina Malpica Rivera won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rivera 36%64% Kareckaite
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -10(favors Kareckaite)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Kareckaite)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Kareckaite)
FeatherweightHIT
Francis Marshall won by Submission (R1)
Marshall 69%31% Silva
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +171(favors Marshall)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Marshall)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Silva)
MiddleweightHIT
Damian Pinas won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pinas 56%44% Schultz
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Schultz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Schultz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Schultz)