UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Chris Curtis (5-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Allen.

Allen is rated at 1696 — 438 points above Curtis's 1258. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Allen's wrestler game against Curtis's striker approach. Allen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Curtis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curtis throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Curtis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Allen over Chris Curtis. The model is firm on this one: Allen at 77%.

The Featherweight matchup features Damon Jackson (6-5-1) taking on Alexander Hernandez (9-7).

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 429 points above Jackson's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Jackson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hernandez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jackson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Damon Jackson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hernandez at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Chepe Mariscal (5-0) taking on Morgan Charriere (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mariscal at 1275 versus Charriere at 1168. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Mariscal rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Mariscal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Charriere is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mariscal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Charriere throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mariscal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Charriere has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chepe Mariscal over Morgan Charriere. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mariscal at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Ignacio Bahamondes (6-2) taking on Christos Giagos (6-7). Bahamondes is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bahamondes is rated at 1386 — 446 points above Giagos's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bahamondes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Bahamondes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Giagos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Giagos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahamondes throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Giagos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Bahamondes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes over Christos Giagos. The model gives Bahamondes a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Charlie Campbell (2-0) taking on Trevor Peek (2-2). Campbell is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Campbell at 1061 versus Peek at 916. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Campbell throws significantly more leather — a 7.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Peek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Campbell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charlie Campbell over Trevor Peek. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Campbell at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Court McGee (11-12). McGee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

McGee is rated at 1037 — 169 points above Morono's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Morono is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McGee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving McGee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Morono over Court McGee. The model gives Morono a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Lukasz Brzeski (1-5) taking on Valter Walker (3-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Walker.

Walker is rated at 1314 — 506 points above Brzeski's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Walker has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brzeski throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valter Walker over Lukasz Brzeski. We're leaning Walker here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Norma Dumont (8-2) taking on Germaine de Randamie (7-2). Randamie is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Dumont is rated at 1546 — 204 points above Randamie's 1341. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dumont's striker game against Randamie's all-rounder approach. Dumont brings a versatile approach, while Randamie is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dumont throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Dumont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Norma Dumont over Germaine de Randamie. The model gives Dumont a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Victor Hugo (1-0) taking on Pedro Falcao (0-1). Hugo will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hugo is rated at 1043 — 173 points above Falcao's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Falcao throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Falcao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Falcao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Victor Hugo over Pedro Falcao. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hugo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jean Matsumoto (3-1) taking on Dan Argueta (1-2).

Matsumoto is rated at 1200 — 341 points above Argueta's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Argueta throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Argueta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Matsumoto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Argueta over Jean Matsumoto. The model gives Argueta a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Cesar Almeida (3-1) taking on Dylan Budka (0-2).

Almeida is rated at 1107 — 331 points above Budka's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Budka throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Budka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Budka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dylan Budka over Cesar Almeida. We're leaning Budka here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Nora Cornolle (3-2) taking on Melissa Mullins (2-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cornolle at 1027, Mullins at 1006. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mullins throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cornolle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melissa Mullins over Nora Cornolle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mullins at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.