UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2
Saturday, April 6, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 6/12(50%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Brendan Allen won by Decision - Split (R5)
Allen 70%30% Curtis
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+3.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +231(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Allen)
FeatherweightMISS
Damon Jackson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jackson 50%50% Hernandez
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+12.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +26(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Jackson)
FeatherweightMISS
Chepe Mariscal won by Decision - Split (R3)
Mariscal 48%52% Charriere
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+3.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +198(favors Mariscal)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Charriere)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Mariscal)
LightweightHIT
Ignacio Bahamondes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bahamondes 78%22% Giagos
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+4.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +158(favors Bahamondes)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Bahamondes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Giagos)
LightweightHIT
Charlie Campbell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Campbell 56%44% Peek
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 60% (-3.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +81(favors Campbell)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.2(favors Campbell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Peek)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Morono won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morono 72%28% McGee
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-1.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +286(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors McGee)
Prelims
HeavyweightMISS
Lukasz Brzeski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brzeski 28%72% Walker
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-4.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -246(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Brzeski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Walker)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Norma Dumont won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dumont 59%41% Randamie
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 51% (+8.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -160(favors Randamie)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Dumont)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Dumont)
BantamweightHIT
Victor Hugo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hugo 59%41% Falcao
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 57% (+1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Falcao)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Falcao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Falcao)
BantamweightMISS
Jean Matsumoto won by Submission (R2)
Matsumoto 42%58% Argueta
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEANMarket: 60% (-17.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -94(favors Argueta)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Argueta)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Argueta)
MiddleweightMISS
Cesar Almeida won by KO/TKO (R2)
Almeida 34%66% Budka
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENTMarket: 42% (-7.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Budka)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Budka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Budka)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Nora Cornolle won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cornolle 45%55% Mullins
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 24% (+20.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -34(favors Mullins)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Mullins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mullins)