UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Saturday, January 20, 2024·Toronto, Ontario, Canada·12 fights
Model: 6/12(50%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Dricus Du Plessis won by Decision - Split (R5)
Plessis 57%43% Strickland
Over/UnderOver 69%
Under 31%Over 69%
LEANMarket: 51% (+6.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +269(favors Plessis)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Plessis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Plessis)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Raquel Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Pennington 54%46% Silva
Over/UnderOver 71%
Under 29%Over 71%
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+14.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +153(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Silva)
WelterweightMISS
Neil Magny won by KO/TKO (R3)
Magny 38%62% Malott
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEANMarket: 24% (+13.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +147(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Malott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Malott)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Curtis won by Decision - Split (R3)
Curtis 53%47% Barriault
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-8.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +156(favors Curtis)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Barriault)
FeatherweightHIT
Movsar Evloev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Evloev 65%35% Allen
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+1.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -109(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Evloev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Evloev)
Prelims
BantamweightMISS
Garrett Armfield won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Armfield 47%53% Katona
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 34% (+12.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +84(favors Armfield)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Armfield)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Katona)
FeatherweightMISS
Sean Woodson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Woodson 38%62% Jourdain
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 35% (+2.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -126(favors Jourdain)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Jourdain)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Woodson)
BantamweightMISS
Ramon Taveras won by Decision - Split (R3)
Taveras 35%65% Sidey
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (-2.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Sidey)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Sidey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sidey)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Gillian Robertson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Robertson 71%29% Viana
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-0.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +264(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Robertson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Robertson)
Early Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Sam Patterson won by Submission (R1)
Patterson 48%52% Lainesse
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+4.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -94(favors Lainesse)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Lainesse)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Lainesse)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Jasmine Jasudavicius won by Submission (R3)
Jasudavicius 87%13% Cachoeira
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+9.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +170(favors Jasudavicius)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Cachoeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Jasudavicius)
FlyweightMISS
Jimmy Flick won by Submission (R2)
Flick 29%71% Gordon
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -201(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Gordon)