UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Saturday, December 16, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 5/12(42%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✗✓✓✗✗✓✓✗✗✗✗
Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Leon Edwards won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Edwards 65%35% Covington
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +122(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Covington)
FlyweightMISS
Alexandre Pantoja won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Pantoja 45%55% Royval
Over/UnderOver 72%
Under 28%Over 72%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +117(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Pantoja)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Pantoja)
WelterweightHIT
Shavkat Rakhmonov won by Submission (R2)
Rakhmonov 70%30% Thompson
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +259(favors Rakhmonov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Rakhmonov)
LightweightHIT
Paddy Pimblett won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pimblett 64%36% Ferguson
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +179(favors Pimblett)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Pimblett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Pimblett)
FeatherweightMISS
Josh Emmett won by KO/TKO (R1)
Emmett 32%68% Mitchell
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +76(favors Emmett)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Emmett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Mitchell)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightMISS
Alonzo Menifield won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Menifield 50%50% Jacoby
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -91(favors Jacoby)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Menifield)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Irene Aldana won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldana 50%50% Rosa
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +235(favors Aldana)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Rosa)
BantamweightHIT
Cody Garbrandt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garbrandt 55%45% Kelleher
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +310(favors Garbrandt)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Garbrandt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Kelleher)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Ariane da Silva won by Submission (R2)
Silva 40%60% O'Neill
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -144(favors O'Neill)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors O'Neill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors O'Neill)
Early Prelims
FlyweightMISS
Tagir Ulanbekov won by Submission (R2)
Ulanbekov 31%69% Durden
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Ulanbekov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Ulanbekov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Durden)
FeatherweightMISS
Andre Fili won by KO/TKO (R1)
Fili 49%51% Almeida
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +69(favors Fili)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Fili)
HeavyweightMISS
Shamil Gaziev won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gaziev 43%57% Buday
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -296(favors Buday)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Buday)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Buday)