UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Arman Tsarukyan (9-2) taking on Beneil Dariush (17-6-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Dariush.

Tsarukyan is rated at 1836 — 400 points above Dariush's 1437. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Tsarukyan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Tsarukyan's striker game against Dariush's wrestler approach. Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach, while Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tsarukyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Tsarukyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan over Beneil Dariush. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tsarukyan at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jalin Turner (7-6) taking on King Green (13-12-1). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Turner is rated at 1393 — 217 points above Green's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Turner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over Jalin Turner. The model gives Green a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Rob Font (12-7). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Figueiredo at 1490 versus Font at 1361. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Figueiredo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over Rob Font. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Figueiredo at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Brady (8-1) taking on Kelvin Gastelum (13-10).

Brady is rated at 1658 — 319 points above Gastelum's 1340. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Brady rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Brady looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brady the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Brady has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Brady over Kelvin Gastelum. The model gives Brady a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Joaquim Silva (6-5) taking on Clay Guida (18-18).

Silva is rated at 1139 — 213 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Guida's all-rounder approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Guida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Joaquim Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guida at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Dustin Stoltzfus (3-6) taking on Punahele Soriano (6-4). Stoltzfus will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Soriano is rated at 1288 — 276 points above Stoltzfus's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Soriano has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Stoltzfus's all-rounder game against Soriano's striker approach. Stoltzfus is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Soriano brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoltzfus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Soriano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Stoltzfus over Punahele Soriano. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stoltzfus at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Miesha Tate (7-6) taking on Julia Avila (3-2). Avila will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Tate at 1077 versus Avila at 933. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tate throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Avila has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julia Avila over Miesha Tate. The model gives Avila a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Cody Brundage (5-6) taking on Zach Reese (4-2). Reese is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Reese at 993 versus Brundage at 870. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Brundage is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Reese looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Reese the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brundage throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brundage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Reese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zach Reese over Cody Brundage. We're leaning Reese here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Drakkar Klose (9-3) taking on Joe Solecki (5-3).

Klose is rated at 1397 — 365 points above Solecki's 1032. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Klose's striker game against Solecki's wrestler approach. Klose brings a versatile approach, while Solecki looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klose throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Solecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Solecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Solecki over Drakkar Klose. The model is firm on this one: Solecki at 77%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rodolfo Bellato (1-0-1) taking on Ihor Potieria (2-5).

Bellato is rated at 1033 — 211 points above Potieria's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Potieria throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Potieria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bellato has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ihor Potieria over Rodolfo Bellato. The model gives Potieria a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jared Gooden (2-4) taking on Wellington Turman (3-5). Gooden will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gooden at 960 versus Turman at 866. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Gooden's striker game against Turman's all-rounder approach. Gooden brings a versatile approach, while Turman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gooden throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Turman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Gooden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wellington Turman over Jared Gooden. The model gives Turman a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Veronica Hardy (4-5) taking on Jamey-Lyn Horth (3-2). Horth is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Horth at 1183 versus Hardy at 1091. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horth throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Horth has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamey-Lyn Horth over Veronica Hardy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Horth at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.