UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Saturday, December 2, 2023·Austin, Texas, USA
Model Record: 4/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Arman Tsarukyan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tsarukyan 55%45% Dariush
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -183(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Tsarukyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Tsarukyan)
LightweightMISS
Jalin Turner won by KO/TKO (R1)
Turner 44%56% Green
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -243(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Turner)
BantamweightHIT
Deiveson Figueiredo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Figueiredo 53%47% Font
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -7(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Figueiredo)
WelterweightHIT
Sean Brady won by Submission (R3)
Brady 56%44% Gastelum
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +11(favors Brady)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Brady)
LightweightMISS
Joaquim Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 50%50% Guida
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -92(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Guida)
MiddleweightHIT
Dustin Stoltzfus won by Submission (R2)
Stoltzfus 51%49% Soriano
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -126(favors Soriano)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Stoltzfus)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Miesha Tate won by Submission (R3)
Tate 36%64% Avila
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -25(favors Avila)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Tate)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Tate)
MiddleweightMISS
Cody Brundage won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brundage 32%68% Reese
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -189(favors Reese)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Brundage)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Brundage)
LightweightMISS
Drakkar Klose won by KO/TKO (R1)
Klose 23%77% Solecki
STRONG
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -2(favors Solecki)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Klose)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Solecki)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Rodolfo Bellato won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bellato 42%58% Potieria
LEAN
→Elo gap: -9(favors Potieria)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Potieria)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Potieria)
WelterweightMISS
Jared Gooden won by Submission (R2)
Gooden 39%61% Turman
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -55(favors Turman)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Gooden)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Turman)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Veronica Hardy won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hardy 47%53% Horth
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -68(favors Horth)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Horth)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Hardy)