UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis lands on Saturday, November 4, 2023 in Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil with 10 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida vs Derrick LewisHeavyweight | Jailton Almeida | Strong | 89% |
| Nicolas Dalby vs Gabriel BonfimWelterweight | Nicolas Dalby | Lean | 62% |
| Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don'Tale MayesHeavyweight | Don'Tale Mayes | Toss-up | 53% |
| Caio Borralho vs Abus MagomedovMiddleweight | Caio Borralho | Strong | 78% |
| Elves Brener vs Kaynan KruschewskyCatch Weight | Elves Brener | Confident | 75% |
| Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosWelterweight | Rinat Fakhretdinov | Lean | 63% |
| Vitor Petrino vs Modestas BukauskasLight Heavyweight | Vitor Petrino | Lean | 64% |
| Angela Hill vs Denise GomesWomen's Strawweight | Denise Gomes | Lean | 59% |
| Eduarda Moura vs Montserrat Conejo RuizWomen's Strawweight | Eduarda Moura | Lean | 65% |
| Marc Diakiese vs Kaue FernandesLightweight | Marc Diakiese | Lean | 57% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis
The Heavyweight championship matchup features Jailton Almeida (8-2) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-10).
Almeida carries a modest Elo edge (1428 to 1366), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Almeida's submission artist game against Lewis's striker approach. Almeida is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Lewis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jailton Almeida over Derrick Lewis. The model is firm on this one: Almeida at 89%.
Nicolas Dalby vs Gabriel Bonfim
The Welterweight matchup features Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1) taking on Gabriel Bonfim (5-1).
Bonfim is rated at 1618 — 335 points above Dalby's 1283. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonfim has won 3 straight.
The style clash matters here: Dalby is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bonfim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonfim the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bonfim throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Bonfim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.8 more per 15 minutes. Dalby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nicolas Dalby over Gabriel Bonfim. The model gives Dalby a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don'Tale Mayes
The Heavyweight matchup features Rodrigo Nascimento (4-2) taking on Don'Tale Mayes (4-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Mayes.
Nascimento is rated at 1092 — 243 points above Mayes's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Nascimento's all-rounder game against Mayes's striker approach. Nascimento is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mayes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Nascimento throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nascimento is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Mayes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Don'Tale Mayes over Rodrigo Nascimento. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mayes at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Caio Borralho vs Abus Magomedov
The Middleweight matchup features Caio Borralho (7-0) taking on Abus Magomedov (4-2). Magomedov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Borralho is rated at 1570 — 290 points above Magomedov's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Borralho rides a 7-fight win streak into this one, while Magomedov has won 3 straight.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Borralho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Magomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Caio Borralho over Abus Magomedov. The model is firm on this one: Borralho at 78%.
Elves Brener vs Kaynan Kruschewsky
The Catch Weight matchup features Elves Brener (3-2) taking on Kaynan Kruschewsky (0-1).
Brener is rated at 1033 — 194 points above Kruschewsky's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Brener throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brener is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Kruschewsky has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Elves Brener over Kaynan Kruschewsky. We're leaning Brener here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
The Welterweight matchup features Rinat Fakhretdinov (5-0-1) taking on Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1).
Fakhretdinov is rated at 1483 — 442 points above Santos's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Fakhretdinov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fakhretdinov the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Fakhretdinov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Fakhretdinov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rinat Fakhretdinov over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. The model gives Fakhretdinov a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Vitor Petrino vs Modestas Bukauskas
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Petrino (5-2) taking on Modestas Bukauskas (7-4).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Petrino at 1195, Bukauskas at 1168. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Bukauskas has won 4 straight.
Stylistically this is Petrino's wrestler game against Bukauskas's striker approach. Petrino looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bukauskas brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bukauskas throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Bukauskas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Vitor Petrino over Modestas Bukauskas. The model gives Petrino a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Angela Hill vs Denise Gomes
The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Denise Gomes (5-2).
Gomes is rated at 1370 — 297 points above Hill's 1074. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gomes has won 3 straight.
Stylistically this is Hill's striker game against Gomes's all-rounder approach. Hill brings a versatile approach, while Gomes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Denise Gomes over Angela Hill. The model gives Gomes a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Eduarda Moura vs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz
The Women's Strawweight matchup features Eduarda Moura (3-1) taking on Montserrat Conejo Ruiz (1-3). Moura is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Moura is rated at 1142 — 421 points above Ruiz's 720. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ruiz throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Moura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Eduarda Moura over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz. The model gives Moura a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
Marc Diakiese vs Kaue Fernandes
The Lightweight matchup features Marc Diakiese (7-7) taking on Kaue Fernandes (2-1).
Fernandes is rated at 1212 — 162 points above Diakiese's 1050. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Diakiese throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Fernandes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Kaue Fernandes. The model gives Diakiese a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.