UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
Saturday, November 4, 2023·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil·10 fights
Model: 7/9(78%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Jailton Almeida won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Almeida 86%14% Lewis
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
STRONG
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +137(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Almeida)
WelterweightMISS
Nicolas Dalby won by KO/TKO (R2)
Dalby 45%55% Bonfim
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +91(favors Dalby)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Bonfim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.8(favors Bonfim)
HeavyweightHIT
Rodrigo Nascimento won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nascimento 54%46% Mayes
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +93(favors Nascimento)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Nascimento)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Nascimento)
MiddleweightHIT
Caio Borralho won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Borralho 63%37% Magomedov
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +375(favors Borralho)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Borralho)
Catch WeightHIT
Elves Brener won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brener 74%26% Kruschewsky
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +300(favors Brener)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.7(favors Brener)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Brener)
Welterweight
Fakhretdinov 76%24% Santos
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONG
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +107(favors Fakhretdinov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.4(favors Fakhretdinov)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Vitor Petrino won by KO/TKO (R2)
Petrino 62%38% Bukauskas
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +226(favors Petrino)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Bukauskas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.8(favors Petrino)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Angela Hill won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hill 33%67% Gomes
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -212(favors Gomes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Gomes)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Eduarda Moura won by KO/TKO (R2)
Moura 65%35% Ruiz
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +239(favors Moura)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Ruiz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Ruiz)
LightweightHIT
Marc Diakiese won by Decision - Split (R3)
Diakiese 53%47% Fernandes
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +57(favors Diakiese)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Diakiese)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.6(favors Diakiese)