UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Grant Dawson (11-1-1).

Dawson is rated at 1336 — 160 points above Green's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dawson has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dawson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Grant Dawson over King Green. We're leaning Dawson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Joe Pyfer (5-1) taking on Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6). Pyfer is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pyfer is rated at 1530 — 556 points above Alhassan's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pyfer's all-rounder game against Alhassan's striker approach. Pyfer is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Alhassan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pyfer throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Alhassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Alhassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Pyfer over Abdul Razak Alhassan. We're leaning Pyfer here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-4) taking on Alex Morono (13-9). Buckley will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 860 points above Morono's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Buckley's striker game against Morono's all-rounder approach. Buckley brings a versatile approach, while Morono is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Alex Morono. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Buckley at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Ricky Glenn (4-5-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Glenn.

Dober is rated at 1083 — 196 points above Glenn's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Glenn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Glenn over Drew Dober. The model gives Glenn a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Bill Algeo (5-4) taking on Alexander Hernandez (9-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Algeo.

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 555 points above Algeo's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Algeo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Bill Algeo. The model gives Hernandez a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9) taking on Diana Belbita (2-5). Belbita is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kowalkiewicz at 871 versus Belbita at 739. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Kowalkiewicz's all-rounder game against Belbita's striker approach. Kowalkiewicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Belbita brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belbita throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kowalkiewicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diana Belbita over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. The model gives Belbita a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Nate Maness (4-2) taking on Mateus Mendonca (0-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Maness.

Maness is rated at 1176 — 355 points above Mendonca's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maness throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendonca is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Maness has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateus Mendonca over Nate Maness. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mendonca at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Vanessa Demopoulos (5-4) taking on Kanako Murata (1-1). Murata will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Demopoulos at 883, Murata at 889. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Demopoulos throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Murata is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Murata has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kanako Murata over Vanessa Demopoulos. The model gives Murata a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aoriqileng (3-4) taking on Johnny Munoz (2-3). Munoz is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Aoriqileng is rated at 1106 — 226 points above Munoz's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Aoriqileng's striker game against Munoz's wrestler approach. Aoriqileng brings a versatile approach, while Munoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aoriqileng throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Munoz over Aoriqileng. The model gives Munoz a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (9-6) taking on Montana De La Rosa (5-5-1).

Aldrich carries a modest Elo edge (1079 to 1036), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Aldrich's striker game against Rosa's wrestler approach. Aldrich brings a versatile approach, while Rosa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldrich. The model gives Rosa a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.