UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Saturday, October 7, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·10 fights
Model: 3/10(30%)
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Main Card
LightweightMISS
King Green won by KO/TKO (R1)
Green 40%60% Dawson
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -243(favors Dawson)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.8(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Dawson)
MiddleweightHIT
Joe Pyfer won by Submission (R2)
Pyfer 71%29% Alhassan
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +145(favors Pyfer)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Pyfer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Alhassan)
WelterweightHIT
Joaquin Buckley won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Buckley 59%41% Morono
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -132(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Buckley)
LightweightMISS
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dober 49%51% Glenn
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +372(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Dober)
FeatherweightMISS
Bill Algeo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Algeo 40%60% Hernandez
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -30(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Algeo)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Karolina Kowalkiewicz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kowalkiewicz 46%54% Belbita
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +332(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Belbita)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Kowalkiewicz)
Prelims
FlyweightHIT
Nate Maness won by KO/TKO (R1)
Maness 55%45% Mendonca
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +124(favors Maness)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Maness)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Mendonca)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Vanessa Demopoulos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Demopoulos 39%61% Murata
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +127(favors Demopoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Demopoulos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Murata)
BantamweightMISS
Aoriqileng won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aoriqileng 37%63% Munoz
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -28(favors Munoz)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Aoriqileng)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Munoz)
Women's FlyweightMISS
JJ Aldrich won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldrich 48%52% Rosa
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -56(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Aldrich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Rosa)