UFC Freedom 250
June 14, 2026
Lightweight
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
9-0
Elo 2180Champion I
Knockout ArtistVS
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
10-5
Elo 1920Champion I
StrikerModel Prediction
89%STRONG
Ilia TopuriaJustin Gaethje
89%11%
Market implied: 82% for Ilia Topuria | Model edge: +7.3pp
Style Matchup
Knockout Artist vs Striker
Historical win rate for Knockout Artist: 56%
Stat Comparison
4.8Sig Str/Min6.5
48%Str Acc59%
61%TD Acc40%
78%Finish Rate60%
9.0Win Streak2.0