UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Steve Garcia (7-2) taking on David Onama (6-2).

Garcia is rated at 1593 — 282 points above Onama's 1311. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Garcia rides a 6-fight win streak into this one, while Onama has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Garcia's knockout artist game against Onama's all-rounder approach. Garcia is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Onama is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Onama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Garcia over David Onama. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Garcia at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (9-2) taking on Ante Delija (1-1).

Acosta is rated at 1637 — 525 points above Delija's 1112. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Delija throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Acosta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ante Delija. The model gives Acosta a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jeremiah Wells (4-2) taking on Themba Gorimbo (4-2). Gorimbo is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Wells is rated at 1254 — 169 points above Gorimbo's 1085. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gorimbo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gorimbo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Gorimbo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Themba Gorimbo over Jeremiah Wells. The model gives Gorimbo a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Yadier del Valle (2-0) taking on Isaac Dulgarian (2-1).

Valle carries a modest Elo edge (1076 to 999), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dulgarian throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Valle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Valle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yadier del Valle over Isaac Dulgarian. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Valle at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Charles Radtke (3-2) taking on Daniel Frunza (0-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Frunza.

Radtke is rated at 1082 — 328 points above Frunza's 753. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frunza throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Radtke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Frunza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Frunza over Charles Radtke. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Frunza at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Catch Weight matchup features Allan Nascimento (3-1) taking on Cody Durden (6-6-1).

Nascimento is rated at 1266 — 420 points above Durden's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nascimento rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Durden throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Nascimento has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Allan Nascimento over Cody Durden. We're leaning Nascimento here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Billy Elekana (2-1) taking on Kevin Christian (0-0). Christian is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Elekana is rated at 1188 — 279 points above Christian's 909. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elekana throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Elekana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Christian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Christian over Billy Elekana. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Christian at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Timmy Cuamba (1-2) taking on ChangHo Lee (2-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cuamba at 1127 versus Lee at 1024. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cuamba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: ChangHo Lee over Timmy Cuamba. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lee at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Donte Johnson (0-0) taking on Sedriques Dumas (3-3). Dumas is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1078 — 261 points above Dumas's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dumas throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Donte Johnson over Sedriques Dumas. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Norma Dumont (8-2) taking on Ketlen Vieira (9-4).

Dumont is rated at 1546 — 252 points above Vieira's 1294. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dumont's striker game against Vieira's wrestler approach. Dumont brings a versatile approach, while Vieira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dumont throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Dumont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Norma Dumont over Ketlen Vieira. The model gives Dumont a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alice Ardelean (1-2) taking on Montserrat Conejo Ruiz (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ardelean.

Ardelean is rated at 968 — 247 points above Ruiz's 720. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ardelean throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Ardelean has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alice Ardelean over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz. The model gives Ardelean a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Seokhyeon Ko (1-0) taking on Phil Rowe (4-4). Rowe is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Ko is rated at 1247 — 206 points above Rowe's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rowe throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Ko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Seokhyeon Ko over Phil Rowe. The model gives Ko a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Talita Alencar (2-1) taking on Ariane Carnelossi (3-2). Carnelossi will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Alencar is rated at 1168 — 239 points above Carnelossi's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carnelossi throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Alencar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Alencar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Talita Alencar over Ariane Carnelossi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alencar at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.