UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Serghei Spivac (8-6). Gane will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gane is rated at 1884 — 529 points above Spivac's 1355. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Spivac looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spivac the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gane throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.9 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Serghei Spivac. The model gives Gane a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Manon Fiorot (7-1) taking on Rose Namajunas (12-6).

Fiorot is rated at 1641 — 220 points above Namajunas's 1421. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Fiorot's striker game against Namajunas's all-rounder approach. Fiorot brings a versatile approach, while Namajunas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiorot throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fiorot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Fiorot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manon Fiorot over Rose Namajunas. The model gives Fiorot a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Benoit Saint Denis (8-3) taking on Thiago Moises (8-6). Denis is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Denis is rated at 1743 — 619 points above Moises's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Denis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Moises looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Moises the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Denis throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Moises has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Moises over Benoit Saint Denis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moises at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Volkan Oezdemir (8-7) taking on Bogdan Guskov (4-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Oezdemir at 1501, Guskov at 1480. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Guskov has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Oezdemir brings a versatile approach, while Guskov is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Guskov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oezdemir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Guskov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bogdan Guskov over Volkan Oezdemir. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guskov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Oezdemir, but our model sees only 46%. That 15-point gap favoring Guskov is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features William Gomis (4-1) taking on Yanis Ghemmouri (0-1). Gomis is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gomis is rated at 1279 — 391 points above Ghemmouri's 888. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomis throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ghemmouri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: William Gomis over Yanis Ghemmouri. We're leaning Gomis here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gomis at 64% implied while our model sees 68% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Morgan Charriere (3-2) taking on Manolo Zecchini (0-0).

Charriere is rated at 1168 — 296 points above Zecchini's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zecchini throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Zecchini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zecchini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Morgan Charriere over Manolo Zecchini. We're leaning Charriere here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Charriere, but our model sees only 72%. That 3-point gap favoring Zecchini is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Taylor Lapilus (5-2) taking on Caolan Loughran (1-2). Lapilus will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lapilus is rated at 1238 — 197 points above Loughran's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lapilus throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lapilus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Loughran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caolan Loughran over Taylor Lapilus. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Loughran at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Lapilus, but our model sees only 49%. That 11-point gap favoring Loughran is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Ange Loosa (2-2) taking on Rhys McKee (1-4). McKee is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Loosa at 934 versus McKee at 853. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loosa throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Loosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Loosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ange Loosa over Rhys McKee. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Loosa at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Nora Cornolle (3-2) taking on Joselyne Edwards (7-4). Edwards will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 293 points above Cornolle's 1027. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Cornolle's all-rounder game against Edwards's striker approach. Cornolle is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Edwards brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Cornolle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Nora Cornolle. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 44% for Cornolle, but our model sees only 39%. That 6-point gap favoring Edwards is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Farid Basharat (5-0) taking on Kleydson Rodrigues (1-2). Basharat is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Basharat is rated at 1459 — 536 points above Rodrigues's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Basharat rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Basharat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Basharat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Farid Basharat over Kleydson Rodrigues. We're leaning Basharat here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Catch Weight matchup features Jacqueline Cavalcanti (4-0) taking on Zarah Fairn (0-3).

Cavalcanti is rated at 1291 — 518 points above Fairn's 773. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Cavalcanti rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fairn throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Fairn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cavalcanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Zarah Fairn. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cavalcanti at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.