UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font
Saturday, August 5, 2023·Nashville, Tennessee, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Catch WeightHIT
Cory Sandhagen won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Sandhagen 74%26% Font
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-1.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +176(favors Sandhagen)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Sandhagen)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tatiana Suarez won by Submission (R2)
Suarez 81%19% Andrade
STRONGMarket: 76% (+4.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +213(favors Suarez)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.5(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.2(favors Suarez)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Dustin Jacoby won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jacoby 40%60% Nzechukwu
LEANMarket: 40% (+0.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -58(favors Nzechukwu)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Nzechukwu)
FeatherweightHIT
Diego Lopes won by Submission (R1)
Lopes 53%47% Tucker
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-8.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -195(favors Tucker)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Tucker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Tucker)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Tanner Boser won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Boser 46%54% Camur
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-10.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +6(favors Boser)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Camur)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Camur)
LightweightMISS
Ludovit Klein won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klein 23%77% Bahamondes
STRONGMarket: 32% (-9.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -205(favors Bahamondes)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Bahamondes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Klein)
BantamweightHIT
Kyler Phillips won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Phillips 71%29% Barcelos
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+5.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +141(favors Phillips)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Barcelos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Phillips)
WelterweightHIT
Carlston Harris won by Submission (R3)
Harris 51%49% Wells
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+3.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -216(favors Wells)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Harris)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Wells)
FeatherweightHIT
Billy Quarantillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Quarantillo 51%49% Jackson
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-9.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -68(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.1(favors Quarantillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Jackson)
FlyweightMISS
Cody Durden won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Durden 24%76% Hadley
STRONGMarket: 35% (-10.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Durden)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Hadley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.7(favors Durden)
FeatherweightHIT
Sean Woodson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Woodson 60%40% Buzukja
LEANMarket: 63% (-2.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +54(favors Woodson)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.1(favors Woodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Buzukja)
FlyweightMISS
Asu Almabayev won by Submission (R2)
Almabayev 36%64% Osbourne
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Osbourne)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Osbourne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Osbourne)