UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font: Predictions & Analysis

The Catch Weight championship matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-5) taking on Rob Font (12-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Sandhagen.

Sandhagen is rated at 1790 — 384 points above Font's 1406. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Sandhagen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Rob Font. The model is firm on this one: Sandhagen at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (8-1) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-13). Suarez is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Suarez is rated at 1629 — 389 points above Andrade's 1240. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Suarez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Suarez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Jessica Andrade. The model is firm on this one: Suarez at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Suarez at 76% implied while our model sees 85% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (10-6-1) taking on Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6-1). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Jacoby is rated at 1411 — 243 points above Nzechukwu's 1168. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jacoby's striker game against Nzechukwu's all-rounder approach. Jacoby brings a versatile approach, while Nzechukwu is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nzechukwu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Dustin Jacoby. The model gives Nzechukwu a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Lopes (6-3) taking on Gavin Tucker (4-3). Lopes is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Lopes is rated at 1762 — 658 points above Tucker's 1104. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lopes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tucker looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tucker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tucker throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tucker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Tucker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Lopes over Gavin Tucker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lopes at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Lopes, but our model sees only 53%. That 7-point gap favoring Tucker is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tanner Boser (5-5) taking on Aleksa Camur (1-3).

Boser is rated at 1051 — 293 points above Camur's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camur throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Camur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Camur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tanner Boser over Aleksa Camur. The model gives Boser a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Boser at 56% implied while our model sees 60% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Ludovit Klein (8-3-1) taking on Ignacio Bahamondes (6-4). Bahamondes is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Klein carries a modest Elo edge (1395 to 1338), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Klein's striker game against Bahamondes's all-rounder approach. Klein brings a versatile approach, while Bahamondes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahamondes throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Klein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Bahamondes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes over Ludovit Klein. We're leaning Bahamondes here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 32% for Klein, but our model sees only 28%. That 5-point gap favoring Bahamondes is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyler Phillips (6-3) taking on Raoni Barcelos (10-4). Phillips will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barcelos carries a modest Elo edge (1418 to 1346), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Barcelos has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Phillips looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barcelos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Phillips the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyler Phillips over Raoni Barcelos. We're leaning Phillips here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlston Harris (4-3) taking on Jeremiah Wells (5-2). Harris is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Wells at 1369 versus Harris at 1228. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Wells is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremiah Wells over Carlston Harris. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wells at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Billy Quarantillo (6-5) taking on Damon Jackson (6-6-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jackson at 1165 versus Quarantillo at 1049. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Quarantillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jackson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jackson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarantillo throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damon Jackson over Billy Quarantillo. We're leaning Jackson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 60% for Quarantillo, but our model sees only 33%. That 27-point gap favoring Jackson is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Cody Durden (6-8-1) taking on Jake Hadley (3-4). Hadley will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hadley carries a modest Elo edge (988 to 915), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Durden's striker game against Hadley's all-rounder approach. Durden brings a versatile approach, while Hadley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hadley throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Hadley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Hadley over Cody Durden. We're leaning Hadley here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 35% for Durden, but our model sees only 30%. That 5-point gap favoring Hadley is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Sean Woodson (7-2-1) taking on Dennis Buzukja (1-3). Woodson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Woodson is rated at 1294 — 382 points above Buzukja's 912. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Woodson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodson throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Buzukja is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Buzukja has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Woodson over Dennis Buzukja. The model gives Woodson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Woodson, but our model sees only 58%. That 5-point gap favoring Buzukja is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Asu Almabayev (6-1) taking on Ode Osbourne (5-8). Osbourne is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Almabayev is rated at 1440 — 532 points above Osbourne's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Almabayev's wrestler game against Osbourne's striker approach. Almabayev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Osbourne brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osbourne throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Osbourne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Almabayev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ode Osbourne over Asu Almabayev. The model gives Osbourne a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.