UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font: Predictions & Analysis

The Catch Weight championship matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-4) taking on Rob Font (12-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Sandhagen.

Sandhagen is rated at 1707 — 346 points above Font's 1361. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Sandhagen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Rob Font. We're leaning Sandhagen here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (7-1) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12). Suarez is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Suarez is rated at 1531 — 416 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Suarez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Suarez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Jessica Andrade. The model is firm on this one: Suarez at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Suarez at 76% implied while our model sees 81% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1) taking on Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Jacoby is rated at 1374 — 303 points above Nzechukwu's 1071. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jacoby's striker game against Nzechukwu's all-rounder approach. Jacoby brings a versatile approach, while Nzechukwu is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nzechukwu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Dustin Jacoby. The model gives Nzechukwu a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Lopes (6-2) taking on Gavin Tucker (4-2). Lopes is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Lopes is rated at 1614 — 596 points above Tucker's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lopes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tucker looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tucker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tucker throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tucker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Tucker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Lopes over Gavin Tucker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lopes at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Lopes, but our model sees only 53%. That 8-point gap favoring Tucker is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tanner Boser (4-5) taking on Aleksa Camur (1-2).

Boser is rated at 984 — 173 points above Camur's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camur throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Camur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Camur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksa Camur over Tanner Boser. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Camur at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Boser, but our model sees only 46%. That 10-point gap favoring Camur is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Ludovit Klein (7-3-1) taking on Ignacio Bahamondes (6-2). Bahamondes is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Klein at 1364, Bahamondes at 1386. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Bahamondes has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Klein's striker game against Bahamondes's all-rounder approach. Klein brings a versatile approach, while Bahamondes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahamondes throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Klein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Bahamondes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes over Ludovit Klein. The model is firm on this one: Bahamondes at 77%. The market implies 32% for Klein, but our model sees only 23%. That 10-point gap favoring Bahamondes is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyler Phillips (6-2) taking on Raoni Barcelos (9-4). Phillips will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barcelos is rated at 1410 — 172 points above Phillips's 1238. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Phillips looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barcelos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Phillips the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyler Phillips over Raoni Barcelos. We're leaning Phillips here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Phillips at 65% implied while our model sees 71% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlston Harris (4-2) taking on Jeremiah Wells (4-2). Harris is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Wells is rated at 1254 — 157 points above Harris's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Wells is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlston Harris over Jeremiah Wells. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Harris at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Harris at 47% implied while our model sees 51% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Billy Quarantillo (6-4) taking on Damon Jackson (6-5-1).

Jackson carries a modest Elo edge (1039 to 965), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Quarantillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jackson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jackson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarantillo throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Billy Quarantillo over Damon Jackson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Quarantillo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Quarantillo, but our model sees only 51%. That 9-point gap favoring Jackson is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Cody Durden (6-6-1) taking on Jake Hadley (3-3). Hadley will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hadley at 967 versus Durden at 846. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Durden's striker game against Hadley's all-rounder approach. Durden brings a versatile approach, while Hadley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hadley throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Hadley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Hadley over Cody Durden. The model is firm on this one: Hadley at 76%. The market implies 35% for Durden, but our model sees only 24%. That 11-point gap favoring Hadley is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Sean Woodson (7-1-1) taking on Dennis Buzukja (1-2). Woodson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Woodson is rated at 1235 — 317 points above Buzukja's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Woodson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodson throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Buzukja is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Buzukja has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Woodson over Dennis Buzukja. The model gives Woodson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Asu Almabayev (5-1) taking on Ode Osbourne (5-7). Osbourne is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Almabayev is rated at 1349 — 503 points above Osbourne's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Almabayev's wrestler game against Osbourne's striker approach. Almabayev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Osbourne brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osbourne throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Osbourne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Almabayev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ode Osbourne over Asu Almabayev. The model gives Osbourne a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.