UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Saturday, October 25, 2025·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight
Aspinall 41%59% Gane
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Aspinall)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Aspinall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Aspinall)
Women's Strawweight✗
Mackenzie Dern won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Dern 40%60% Jandiroba
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -264(favors Jandiroba)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Dern)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Jandiroba)
Bantamweight✓
Umar Nurmagomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nurmagomedov 63%37% Bautista
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -2(favors Bautista)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Bautista)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Nurmagomedov)
Heavyweight✗
Alexander Volkov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Volkov 44%56% Almeida
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Volkov)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Volkov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.5(favors Almeida)
Light Heavyweight✓
Azamat Murzakanov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Murzakanov 64%36% Rakic
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +120(favors Murzakanov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Murzakanov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Murzakanov)
Lightweight✓
Quillan Salkilld won by KO/TKO (R1)
Salkilld 51%49% Haqparast
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -266(favors Haqparast)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.1(favors Salkilld)
Middleweight✗
Ikram Aliskerov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aliskerov 46%54% Park
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +67(favors Aliskerov)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Aliskerov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Park)
Lightweight✓
Ludovit Klein won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Klein 71%29% Rebecki
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +174(favors Klein)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Rebecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Rebecki)
Heavyweight✓
Valter Walker won by Submission (R1)
Walker 72%28% Sutherland
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +276(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.4(favors Walker)
Featherweight✓
Nathaniel Wood won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wood 50%50% Delgado
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +49(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Delgado)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Wood)
Heavyweight✓
Hamdy Abdelwahab won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Abdelwahab 74%26% Barnett
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +34(favors Abdelwahab)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Barnett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Abdelwahab)
Flyweight✓
Mitch Raposo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Raposo 58%42% Maksum
LEAN
→Elo gap: -83(favors Maksum)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Maksum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Raposo)
Women's Strawweight✗
Mizuki won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mizuki 18%82% Amorim
STRONG
→Elo gap: -274(favors Amorim)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Mizuki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Amorim)