UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Tom Aspinall (8-1) taking on Ciryl Gane (10-2). Gane will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Aspinall carries a modest Elo edge (2044 to 1981), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Aspinall rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Aspinall's knockout artist game against Gane's all-rounder approach. Aspinall is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aspinall throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Aspinall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Aspinall over Ciryl Gane. The model gives Aspinall a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 75% for Aspinall, but our model sees only 61%. That 14-point gap favoring Gane is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Mackenzie Dern (11-5) taking on Virna Jandiroba (9-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jandiroba at 1586 versus Dern at 1465. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dern throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Jandiroba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Mackenzie Dern. The model gives Jandiroba a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 56% for Dern, but our model sees only 42%. That 14-point gap favoring Jandiroba is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Umar Nurmagomedov (8-1) taking on Mario Bautista (11-3).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1809 — 164 points above Bautista's 1645. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bautista is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov over Mario Bautista. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Nurmagomedov at 83% implied while our model sees 87% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (13-5) taking on Jailton Almeida (8-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Volkov.

Volkov is rated at 1856 — 308 points above Almeida's 1548. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Volkov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Almeida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Almeida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jailton Almeida over Alexander Volkov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Almeida at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Volkov at 37% implied while our model sees 47% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Azamat Murzakanov (6-0) taking on Aleksandar Rakic (6-5). Rakic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Murzakanov is rated at 1721 — 309 points above Rakic's 1413. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murzakanov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murzakanov throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Murzakanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Murzakanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Azamat Murzakanov over Aleksandar Rakic. The model gives Murzakanov a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Murzakanov at 48% implied while our model sees 58% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Quillan Salkilld (4-0) taking on Nasrat Haqparast (10-5). Salkilld is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Salkilld is rated at 1553 — 232 points above Haqparast's 1321. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Salkilld rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Haqparast has won 5 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Haqparast throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Salkilld is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.1 more per 15 minutes. Haqparast has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Quillan Salkilld over Nasrat Haqparast. We're leaning Salkilld here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Salkilld at 53% implied while our model sees 68% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Ikram Aliskerov (4-1) taking on JunYong Park (9-4). Aliskerov is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Aliskerov is rated at 1607 — 284 points above Park's 1324. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aliskerov throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Park has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ikram Aliskerov over JunYong Park. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aliskerov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 65% for Aliskerov, but our model sees only 54%. That 11-point gap favoring Park is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Ludovit Klein (8-3-1) taking on Mateusz Rebecki (4-3). Klein will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Klein is rated at 1395 — 225 points above Rebecki's 1170. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Klein's striker game against Rebecki's submission artist approach. Klein brings a versatile approach, while Rebecki is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rebecki throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rebecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Klein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ludovit Klein over Mateusz Rebecki. We're leaning Klein here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Klein at 57% implied while our model sees 75% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Valter Walker (4-1) taking on Louie Sutherland (0-2). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Walker is rated at 1443 — 554 points above Sutherland's 889. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Walker rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Sutherland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valter Walker over Louie Sutherland. The model is firm on this one: Walker at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (11-3) taking on Jose Delgado (3-1). Delgado is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Wood at 1435 versus Delgado at 1351. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Wood rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Delgado throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Delgado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Delgado over Nathaniel Wood. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Delgado at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Wood at 42% implied while our model sees 49% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Hamdy Abdelwahab (2-1) taking on Chris Barnett (2-4). Barnett will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Abdelwahab is rated at 1112 — 181 points above Barnett's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnett throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Abdelwahab is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Abdelwahab has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hamdy Abdelwahab over Chris Barnett. The model is firm on this one: Abdelwahab at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Abdelwahab at 79% implied while our model sees 93% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Mitch Raposo (1-2) taking on Azat Maksum (1-3). Maksum is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Raposo is rated at 975 — 221 points above Maksum's 755. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maksum throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Raposo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Raposo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Azat Maksum over Mitch Raposo. We're leaning Maksum here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Raposo at 20% implied while our model sees 32% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mizuki (3-1) taking on Jaqueline Amorim (4-2). Amorim will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Mizuki at 1296, Amorim at 1282. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Amorim has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mizuki throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Amorim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Amorim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jaqueline Amorim over Mizuki. The model is firm on this one: Amorim at 82%.