UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Tom Aspinall (8-1) taking on Ciryl Gane (10-2). Gane will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Aspinall carries a modest Elo edge (1917 to 1884), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Aspinall rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Aspinall's knockout artist game against Gane's all-rounder approach. Aspinall is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aspinall throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Aspinall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Tom Aspinall. The model gives Gane a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Mackenzie Dern (10-5) taking on Virna Jandiroba (8-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dern at 1472, Jandiroba at 1457. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Jandiroba has won 5 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dern throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Jandiroba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Mackenzie Dern. The model gives Jandiroba a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Umar Nurmagomedov (7-1) taking on Mario Bautista (10-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nurmagomedov at 1701 versus Bautista at 1566. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bautista is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov over Mario Bautista. The model gives Nurmagomedov a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Jailton Almeida (8-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Volkov.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 327 points above Almeida's 1428. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Volkov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Almeida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Almeida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jailton Almeida over Alexander Volkov. The model gives Almeida a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Azamat Murzakanov (5-0) taking on Aleksandar Rakic (6-4). Rakic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Murzakanov is rated at 1573 — 290 points above Rakic's 1283. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murzakanov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murzakanov throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Murzakanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Murzakanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Azamat Murzakanov over Aleksandar Rakic. The model gives Murzakanov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Quillan Salkilld (3-0) taking on Nasrat Haqparast (10-4). Salkilld is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Salkilld is rated at 1406 — 171 points above Haqparast's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Salkilld rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Haqparast has won 5 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Haqparast throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Salkilld is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.1 more per 15 minutes. Haqparast has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Quillan Salkilld over Nasrat Haqparast. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Salkilld at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Ikram Aliskerov (3-1) taking on JunYong Park (9-3). Aliskerov is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Aliskerov is rated at 1439 — 205 points above Park's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aliskerov throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Park has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JunYong Park over Ikram Aliskerov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Park at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Ludovit Klein (7-3-1) taking on Mateusz Rebecki (4-2). Klein will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Klein is rated at 1364 — 266 points above Rebecki's 1098. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Klein's striker game against Rebecki's all-rounder approach. Klein brings a versatile approach, while Rebecki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rebecki throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rebecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Klein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ludovit Klein over Mateusz Rebecki. We're leaning Klein here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Valter Walker (3-1) taking on Louie Sutherland (0-0). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Walker is rated at 1314 — 351 points above Sutherland's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Walker rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Sutherland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valter Walker over Louie Sutherland. We're leaning Walker here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (9-3) taking on Jose Delgado (2-0). Delgado is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Wood is rated at 1389 — 195 points above Delgado's 1194. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Delgado throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Delgado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over Jose Delgado. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wood at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Hamdy Abdelwahab (1-1) taking on Chris Barnett (2-3). Barnett will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Abdelwahab is rated at 1048 — 187 points above Barnett's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnett throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Abdelwahab is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Abdelwahab has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hamdy Abdelwahab over Chris Barnett. We're leaning Abdelwahab here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Mitch Raposo (0-2) taking on Azat Maksum (1-2). Maksum is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Raposo at 962 versus Maksum at 835. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maksum throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Raposo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Raposo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mitch Raposo over Azat Maksum. The model gives Raposo a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mizuki (2-1) taking on Jaqueline Amorim (4-1). Amorim will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Mizuki at 1185, Amorim at 1177. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Amorim has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mizuki throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Amorim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Amorim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jaqueline Amorim over Mizuki. The model is firm on this one: Amorim at 82%.