UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Saturday, July 8, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Alexander Volkanovski won by KO/TKO (R3)
Volkanovski 59%41% Rodriguez
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +99(favors Volkanovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Volkanovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Volkanovski)
FlyweightMISS
Alexandre Pantoja won by Decision - Split (R5)
Pantoja 32%68% Moreno
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (-4.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -287(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Pantoja)
MiddleweightMISS
Dricus Du Plessis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Plessis 31%69% Whittaker
CONFIDENTMarket: 25% (+6.4% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -170(favors Whittaker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Plessis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Plessis)
LightweightMISS
Dan Hooker won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hooker 38%62% Turner
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +41(favors Hooker)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Turner)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Hooker)
MiddleweightHIT
Bo Nickal won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nickal 60%40% Woodburn
LEAN
→Elo gap: +47(favors Nickal)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Nickal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.2(favors Nickal)
WelterweightMISS
Robbie Lawler won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lawler 27%73% Price
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-7.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +167(favors Lawler)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Price)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Price)
Catch WeightHIT
Tatsuro Taira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Taira 76%24% Chairez
STRONGMarket: 91% (-14.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +223(favors Taira)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Taira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Taira)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Denise Gomes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gomes 27%73% Jauregui
CONFIDENTMarket: 24% (+3.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -53(favors Jauregui)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Jauregui)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Gomes)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alonzo Menifield won by Submission (R2)
Menifield 56%44% Crute
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Menifield)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Menifield)
→Takedown rate advantage: -8.8(favors Crute)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Vitor Petrino won by Submission (R3)
Petrino 73%27% Prachnio
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+3.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +105(favors Petrino)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Prachnio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.0(favors Petrino)
BantamweightHIT
Cameron Saaiman won by KO/TKO (R1)
Saaiman 91%9% Mitchell
STRONGMarket: 82% (+8.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +186(favors Saaiman)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.8(favors Saaiman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Saaiman)
FlyweightHIT
Jesus Aguilar won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aguilar 67%33% Ross
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +97(favors Aguilar)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Ross)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ross)
LightweightHIT
Esteban Ribovics won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ribovics 54%46% Kirk
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-5.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -77(favors Kirk)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Ribovics)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kirk)