UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Yair Rodriguez (10-4). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Rodriguez.

Volkanovski is rated at 1824 — 265 points above Rodriguez's 1559. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Volkanovski's striker game against Rodriguez's all-rounder approach. Volkanovski brings a versatile approach, while Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkanovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Yair Rodriguez. The model gives Volkanovski a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight championship matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-3) taking on Brandon Moreno (11-5-2). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pantoja at 1497 versus Moreno at 1410. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Pantoja looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pantoja the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pantoja is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pantoja has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Alexandre Pantoja. We're leaning Moreno here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Pantoja, but our model sees only 32%. That 5-point gap favoring Moreno is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Dricus Du Plessis (9-0) taking on Robert Whittaker (17-6). Plessis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Plessis is rated at 1860 — 332 points above Whittaker's 1528. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Plessis rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Plessis's submission artist game against Whittaker's striker approach. Plessis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Whittaker brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Plessis throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Plessis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Dricus Du Plessis. We're leaning Whittaker here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Plessis at 25% implied while our model sees 31% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on Jalin Turner (7-6). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Hooker carries a modest Elo edge (1450 to 1393), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Turner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Turner the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turner throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Hooker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jalin Turner over Dan Hooker. The model gives Turner a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Bo Nickal (4-1) taking on Val Woodburn (0-1). Nickal is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Nickal is rated at 1320 — 489 points above Woodburn's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nickal throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Nickal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Woodburn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bo Nickal over Val Woodburn. The model gives Nickal a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Niko Price (8-9).

Lawler is rated at 1297 — 481 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lawler's striker game against Price's all-rounder approach. Lawler brings a versatile approach, while Price is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Price throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Niko Price over Robbie Lawler. We're leaning Price here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Lawler, but our model sees only 27%. That 8-point gap favoring Price is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Tatsuro Taira (7-1) taking on Edgar Chairez (1-2).

Taira is rated at 1620 — 609 points above Chairez's 1011. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taira throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Taira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Chairez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatsuro Taira over Edgar Chairez. The model is firm on this one: Taira at 76%. The market implies 91% for Taira, but our model sees only 76%. That 14-point gap favoring Chairez is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Denise Gomes (5-2) taking on Yazmin Jauregui (3-1).

Gomes is rated at 1370 — 422 points above Jauregui's 948. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gomes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jauregui throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Jauregui has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yazmin Jauregui over Denise Gomes. We're leaning Jauregui here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gomes at 24% implied while our model sees 27% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1) taking on Jimmy Crute (5-4-2).

Menifield carries a modest Elo edge (1207 to 1151), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Menifield is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Crute is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Menifield the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menifield throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Crute is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.8 more per 15 minutes. Menifield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alonzo Menifield over Jimmy Crute. The model gives Menifield a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Petrino (5-2) taking on Marcin Prachnio (4-6). Petrino will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Petrino is rated at 1195 — 377 points above Prachnio's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Petrino's wrestler game against Prachnio's striker approach. Petrino looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Prachnio brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prachnio throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Prachnio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Petrino over Marcin Prachnio. We're leaning Petrino here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Petrino at 69% implied while our model sees 73% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cameron Saaiman (3-2) taking on Terrence Mitchell (0-1). Mitchell is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Saaiman carries a modest Elo edge (869 to 825), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saaiman throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Saaiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cameron Saaiman over Terrence Mitchell. The model is firm on this one: Saaiman at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Saaiman at 82% implied while our model sees 91% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Jesus Aguilar (3-2) taking on Shannon Ross (0-2). Ross is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Aguilar is rated at 1087 — 368 points above Ross's 719. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ross throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ross is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ross has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jesus Aguilar over Shannon Ross. We're leaning Aguilar here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Esteban Ribovics (3-2) taking on Kamuela Kirk (1-1). Kirk will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ribovics is rated at 1278 — 390 points above Kirk's 888. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribovics throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kirk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kirk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Esteban Ribovics over Kamuela Kirk. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ribovics at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Ribovics, but our model sees only 54%. That 5-point gap favoring Kirk is worth watching.