UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
Saturday, June 24, 2023·Jacksonville, Florida, USA·13 fights
Model: 5/12(42%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Ilia Topuria won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Topuria 79%21% Emmett
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+3.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +38(favors Topuria)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Emmett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Topuria)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Maycee Barber won by KO/TKO (R2)
Barber 46%54% Ribas
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+9.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +35(favors Barber)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Ribas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Ribas)
Heavyweight
Lane 41%59% Tafa
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEANMarket: 37% (+3.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -207(favors Tafa)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Tafa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tafa)
FeatherweightMISS
David Onama won by KO/TKO (R2)
Onama 37%63% Santos
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 34% (+3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +66(favors Onama)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Onama)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.9(favors Santos)
MiddleweightHIT
Brendan Allen won by Submission (R1)
Allen 66%34% Silva
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+0.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +336(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Allen)
WelterweightMISS
Neil Magny won by Decision - Split (R3)
Magny 49%51% Rowe
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-12.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Rowe)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Magny)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Randy Brown won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brown 68%32% Turman
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +471(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Turman)
LightweightHIT
Mateusz Rebecki won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rebecki 61%39% Radzhabov
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 54% (+6.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Radzhabov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Rebecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -8.0(favors Radzhabov)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tabatha Ricci won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ricci 62%38% Robertson
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 54% (+8.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -19(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Ricci)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Ricci)
FlyweightMISS
Joshua Van won by Decision - Split (R3)
Van 37%63% Zhumagulov
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 34% (+2.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +209(favors Van)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.0(favors Zhumagulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Zhumagulov)
LightweightMISS
Chepe Mariscal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mariscal 23%77% Peek
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONG
→Elo gap: -122(favors Peek)
→Striking volume advantage: -10.2(favors Peek)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Peek)
FeatherweightMISS
Jack Jenkins won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jenkins 42%58% Emmers
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 36% (+6.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Jenkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Jenkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Jenkins)
MiddleweightMISS
Sedriques Dumas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dumas 50%50% Brundage
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+9.1% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -197(favors Brundage)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Dumas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Brundage)