UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
Saturday, June 24, 2023·Jacksonville, Florida, USA
Model Record: 5/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Ilia Topuria won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Topuria 73%27% Emmett
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-3.1% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Emmett)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Emmett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Topuria)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Maycee Barber won by KO/TKO (R2)
Barber 36%64% Ribas
LEANMarket: 36% (-0.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +51(favors Barber)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Ribas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Ribas)
Heavyweight
Lane 39%61% Tafa
LEANMarket: 37% (+1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -155(favors Tafa)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Tafa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tafa)
FeatherweightMISS
David Onama won by KO/TKO (R2)
Onama 38%62% Santos
LEANMarket: 34% (+4.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +60(favors Onama)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Onama)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.9(favors Santos)
MiddleweightHIT
Brendan Allen won by Submission (R1)
Allen 75%25% Silva
STRONGMarket: 65% (+9.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +295(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Allen)
WelterweightMISS
Neil Magny won by Decision - Split (R3)
Magny 48%52% Rowe
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-14.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +174(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Rowe)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Magny)
WelterweightHIT
Randy Brown won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brown 70%30% Turman
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+0.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +348(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Turman)
LightweightHIT
Mateusz Rebecki won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rebecki 58%42% Radzhabov
LEANMarket: 54% (+4.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Radzhabov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Rebecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -8.0(favors Radzhabov)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tabatha Ricci won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ricci 59%41% Robertson
LEANMarket: 54% (+4.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -80(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Ricci)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Ricci)
FlyweightMISS
Joshua Van won by Decision - Split (R3)
Van 37%63% Zhumagulov
LEANMarket: 34% (+3.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +204(favors Van)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.0(favors Zhumagulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Zhumagulov)
LightweightMISS
Chepe Mariscal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mariscal 25%75% Peek
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -82(favors Peek)
→Striking volume advantage: -10.2(favors Peek)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Peek)
FeatherweightMISS
Jack Jenkins won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jenkins 32%68% Emmers
CONFIDENTMarket: 36% (-4.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +30(favors Jenkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Jenkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Jenkins)
MiddleweightMISS
Sedriques Dumas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dumas 49%51% Brundage
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+8.0% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -85(favors Brundage)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Dumas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Brundage)