UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Ilia Topuria (9-0) taking on Josh Emmett (10-7).

Topuria is rated at 2180 — 743 points above Emmett's 1437. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Topuria rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Topuria is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Emmett brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Topuria the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmett throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Topuria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Topuria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ilia Topuria over Josh Emmett. The model is firm on this one: Topuria at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Topuria at 76% implied while our model sees 79% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maycee Barber (10-3) taking on Amanda Ribas (7-6).

Barber is rated at 1479 — 316 points above Ribas's 1163. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barber rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Barber's striker game against Ribas's all-rounder approach. Barber brings a versatile approach, while Ribas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribas throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Maycee Barber. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ribas at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Barber at 36% implied while our model sees 46% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Austen Lane (1-5) taking on Justin Tafa (4-5). Lane is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Tafa is rated at 944 — 207 points above Lane's 737. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tafa throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tafa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Tafa over Austen Lane. The model gives Tafa a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lane at 37% implied while our model sees 41% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features David Onama (6-3) taking on Gabriel Santos (2-2). Onama is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Onama is rated at 1359 — 155 points above Santos's 1204. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Onama rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Onama throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Onama has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Santos over David Onama. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Onama at 34% implied while our model sees 37% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Brendan Allen (14-4) taking on Bruno Silva (4-7).

Allen is rated at 1783 — 897 points above Silva's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Allen's wrestler game against Silva's striker approach. Allen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Allen over Bruno Silva. We're leaning Allen here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-13) taking on Phil Rowe (4-5).

Magny is rated at 1418 — 282 points above Rowe's 1137. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rowe is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magny the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rowe throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Rowe has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Rowe over Neil Magny. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rowe at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Magny, but our model sees only 49%. That 12-point gap favoring Rowe is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-7) taking on Wellington Turman (3-6). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1497 — 608 points above Turman's 889. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Turman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Turman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Turman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Wellington Turman. We're leaning Brown here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Rebecki (4-3) taking on Loik Radzhabov (2-2). Radzhabov is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rebecki is rated at 1170 — 150 points above Radzhabov's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rebecki throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Radzhabov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.0 more per 15 minutes. Rebecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Rebecki over Loik Radzhabov. The model gives Rebecki a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rebecki at 54% implied while our model sees 61% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tabatha Ricci (7-4) taking on Gillian Robertson (14-6). Robertson is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Robertson carries a modest Elo edge (1422 to 1358), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Robertson has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Ricci is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ricci throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ricci is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tabatha Ricci over Gillian Robertson. The model gives Ricci a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ricci at 54% implied while our model sees 62% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Joshua Van (9-1) taking on Zhalgas Zhumagulov (1-6).

Van is rated at 1687 — 927 points above Zhumagulov's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Van rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Van's striker game against Zhumagulov's wrestler approach. Van brings a versatile approach, while Zhumagulov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zhumagulov throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Zhumagulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Van has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhalgas Zhumagulov over Joshua Van. The model gives Zhumagulov a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Chepe Mariscal (5-1) taking on Trevor Peek (2-3).

Mariscal is rated at 1409 — 489 points above Peek's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mariscal rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peek throws significantly more leather — a 10.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Peek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mariscal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevor Peek over Chepe Mariscal. The model is firm on this one: Peek at 77%.

The Featherweight matchup features Jack Jenkins (4-2) taking on Jamall Emmers (5-4). Emmers is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Emmers at 1193 versus Jenkins at 1062. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jenkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jenkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Emmers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamall Emmers over Jack Jenkins. The model gives Emmers a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Jenkins at 36% implied while our model sees 42% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Sedriques Dumas (3-4) taking on Cody Brundage (5-8). Dumas is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dumas at 848, Brundage at 875. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Dumas's striker game against Brundage's submission artist approach. Dumas brings a versatile approach, while Brundage is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dumas throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brundage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Brundage has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Brundage over Sedriques Dumas. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brundage at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Dumas at 41% implied while our model sees 50% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.