UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Saturday, April 8, 2023·Miami, Florida, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightMISS
Israel Adesanya won by KO/TKO (R2)
Adesanya 47%53% Pereira
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-8.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +38(favors Adesanya)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Pereira)
WelterweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Burns 87%13% Masvidal
STRONGMarket: 79% (+7.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Burns)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Burns)
BantamweightMISS
Rob Font won by KO/TKO (R1)
Font 38%62% Yanez
LEANMarket: 38% (-0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +21(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Font)
WelterweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by KO/TKO (R3)
Holland 72%28% Ponzinibbio
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+2.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -205(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Holland)
BantamweightHIT
Christian Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 59%41% Jr.
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -9.4(favors Jr.)
MiddleweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gastelum 54%46% Curtis
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (+0.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Curtis)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Gastelum)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Luana Pinheiro won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pinheiro 54%46% Waterson-Gomez
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -21(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Pinheiro)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Pinheiro)
MiddleweightHIT
Joe Pyfer won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pyfer 62%38% Meerschaert
LEANMarket: 64% (-2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -264(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Pyfer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Meerschaert)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Loopy Godinez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Godinez 57%43% Calvillo
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +74(favors Godinez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Calvillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Godinez)
Catch WeightHIT
Ignacio Bahamondes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bahamondes 84%16% Ogden
STRONGMarket: 78% (+6.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +176(favors Bahamondes)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Bahamondes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Ogden)
FeatherweightHIT
Steve Garcia won by KO/TKO (R2)
Garcia 65%35% Nuerdanbieke
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Nuerdanbieke)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Nuerdanbieke)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Sam Hughes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hughes 19%81% Amorim
STRONGMarket: 31% (-11.7% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -23(favors Amorim)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Hughes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Hughes)