UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-6) taking on Alex Pereira (10-2).

Pereira is rated at 2083 — 445 points above Adesanya's 1638. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Pereira over Israel Adesanya. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pereira at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Adesanya, but our model sees only 45%. That 10-point gap favoring Pereira is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-9) taking on Jorge Masvidal (12-10). Masvidal will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Masvidal at 1642 versus Burns at 1542. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Burns's all-rounder game against Masvidal's knockout artist approach. Burns is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Masvidal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Burns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Jorge Masvidal. The model is firm on this one: Burns at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Burns at 79% implied while our model sees 88% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-9) taking on Adrian Yanez (6-3-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Font at 1406 versus Yanez at 1287. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Font's all-rounder game against Yanez's striker approach. Font is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Yanez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Yanez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adrian Yanez over Rob Font. The model gives Yanez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-12) taking on Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-8). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Holland carries a modest Elo edge (1375 to 1335), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Holland's all-rounder game against Ponzinibbio's striker approach. Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Santiago Ponzinibbio. The model is firm on this one: Holland at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Holland at 69% implied while our model sees 75% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Christian Rodriguez (5-4) taking on Raul Rosas Jr. (6-1). Rodriguez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jr. is rated at 1437 — 303 points above Rodriguez's 1134. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jr. has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.4 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Rodriguez over Raul Rosas Jr.. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (14-10) taking on Chris Curtis (6-5). Curtis will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gastelum is rated at 1457 — 162 points above Curtis's 1295. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gastelum's all-rounder game against Curtis's striker approach. Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Curtis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curtis throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gastelum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Curtis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Chris Curtis. The model gives Gastelum a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Luana Pinheiro (3-4) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Waterson-Gomez at 1010 versus Pinheiro at 897. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pinheiro throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pinheiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Pinheiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Pinheiro over Michelle Waterson-Gomez. The model gives Pinheiro a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Joe Pyfer (7-1) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-13).

Pyfer is rated at 1795 — 797 points above Meerschaert's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pyfer rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Pyfer's knockout artist game against Meerschaert's wrestler approach. Pyfer is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pyfer throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Pyfer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Joe Pyfer. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Meerschaert at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 64% for Pyfer, but our model sees only 46%. That 18-point gap favoring Meerschaert is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loopy Godinez (9-5) taking on Cynthia Calvillo (6-6-1). Calvillo is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Godinez is rated at 1295 — 303 points above Calvillo's 992. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Godinez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Calvillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Godinez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Calvillo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Cynthia Calvillo. The model gives Godinez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Ignacio Bahamondes (6-4) taking on Trey Ogden (3-3). Bahamondes is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Bahamondes is rated at 1338 — 204 points above Ogden's 1134. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bahamondes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ogden looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ogden the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahamondes throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ogden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Ogden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes over Trey Ogden. The model is firm on this one: Bahamondes at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Bahamondes at 78% implied while our model sees 82% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Steve Garcia (8-2) taking on Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (3-3). Garcia is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Garcia is rated at 1656 — 696 points above Nuerdanbieke's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Garcia rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Garcia is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Nuerdanbieke brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Garcia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nuerdanbieke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke over Steve Garcia. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nuerdanbieke at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Garcia at 38% implied while our model sees 49% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Sam Hughes (6-6) taking on Jaqueline Amorim (4-2). Amorim will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Amorim at 1282 versus Hughes at 1201. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Both fighters bring momentum: Hughes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Amorim has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Hughes's striker game against Amorim's submission artist approach. Hughes brings a versatile approach, while Amorim is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Amorim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jaqueline Amorim over Sam Hughes. The model is firm on this one: Amorim at 76%. The market implies 31% for Hughes, but our model sees only 24%. That 7-point gap favoring Amorim is worth watching.