UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen
Saturday, October 29, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Arnold Allen won by KO/TKO (R2)
Allen 70%30% Kattar
CONFIDENTMarket: 53% (+16.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +49(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Kattar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Allen)
WelterweightHIT
Max Griffin won by Decision - Split (R3)
Griffin 61%39% Means
LEANMarket: 63% (-2.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +106(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Means)
HeavyweightHIT
Waldo Cortes Acosta won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Acosta 62%38% Vanderaa
LEANMarket: 66% (-4.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +304(favors Acosta)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.8(favors Vanderaa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Vanderaa)
MiddleweightHIT
Tresean Gore won by Submission (R2)
Gore 51%49% Fremd
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+10.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -89(favors Fremd)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Gore)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Gore)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Khalil Rountree Jr. won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jr. 34%66% Jacoby
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -307(favors Jacoby)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Jacoby)
MiddleweightHIT
Roman Dolidze won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dolidze 54%46% Hawes
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+16.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Dolidze)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Hawes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Dolidze)
HeavyweightHIT
Marcos Rogerio de Lima won by Submission (R1)
Lima 78%22% Arlovski
STRONGMarket: 69% (+8.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -124(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Arlovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Lima)
MiddleweightHIT
JunYong Park won by Submission (R2)
Park 63%37% Holmes
LEAN
→Elo gap: +105(favors Park)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Park)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Park)
FeatherweightMISS
Steve Garcia won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garcia 22%78% Hooper
STRONGMarket: 26% (-4.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -191(favors Hooper)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hooper)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Garcia)
FlyweightMISS
Cody Durden won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Durden 34%66% Mota
CONFIDENTMarket: 40% (-6.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -17(favors Mota)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Durden)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.2(favors Durden)
BantamweightHIT
Christian Rodriguez won by Submission (R1)
Rodriguez 78%22% Weems
STRONGMarket: 78% (+0.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -45(favors Weems)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Rodriguez)