UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen
Saturday, October 29, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 7/11(64%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✓✓✓✗✗✓✓✗✗✓
Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Arnold Allen won by KO/TKO (R2)
Allen 68%32% Kattar
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 53% (+14.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +57(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Kattar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Allen)
WelterweightHIT
Max Griffin won by Decision - Split (R3)
Griffin 66%34% Means
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+2.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +98(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Means)
HeavyweightHIT
Waldo Cortes Acosta won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Acosta 60%40% Vanderaa
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEANMarket: 66% (-5.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +259(favors Acosta)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.8(favors Vanderaa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Vanderaa)
MiddleweightHIT
Tresean Gore won by Submission (R2)
Gore 55%45% Fremd
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEANMarket: 41% (+14.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -131(favors Fremd)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Gore)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Gore)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Khalil Rountree Jr. won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jr. 42%58% Jacoby
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 38% (+3.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -355(favors Jacoby)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Jacoby)
MiddleweightMISS
Roman Dolidze won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dolidze 49%51% Hawes
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+12.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +172(favors Dolidze)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Hawes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Dolidze)
Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Marcos Rogerio de Lima won by Submission (R1)
Lima 81%19% Arlovski
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+11.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -109(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Arlovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Lima)
MiddleweightHIT
JunYong Park won by Submission (R2)
Park 63%37% Holmes
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +209(favors Park)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Park)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Park)
FeatherweightMISS
Steve Garcia won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garcia 28%72% Hooper
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (+1.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -229(favors Hooper)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hooper)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Garcia)
FlyweightMISS
Cody Durden won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Durden 36%64% Mota
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 40% (-4.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -90(favors Mota)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Durden)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.2(favors Durden)
BantamweightHIT
Christian Rodriguez won by Submission (R1)
Rodriguez 86%14% Weems
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+7.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -33(favors Weems)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Rodriguez)