UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Arnold Allen (11-3) taking on Calvin Kattar (7-8). Kattar is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Allen is rated at 1609 — 226 points above Kattar's 1383. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kattar throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Arnold Allen over Calvin Kattar. We're leaning Allen here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Allen at 53% implied while our model sees 68% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Max Griffin (8-10) taking on Tim Means (15-14). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Means.

Griffin is rated at 1276 — 234 points above Means's 1042. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Griffin's striker game against Means's all-rounder approach. Griffin brings a versatile approach, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Griffin over Tim Means. We're leaning Griffin here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (10-2) taking on Jared Vanderaa (1-6).

Acosta is rated at 1714 — 1004 points above Vanderaa's 710. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Acosta rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vanderaa throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vanderaa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta over Jared Vanderaa. The model gives Acosta a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Acosta, but our model sees only 60%. That 6-point gap favoring Vanderaa is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Tresean Gore (3-4) taking on Josh Fremd (2-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Fremd.

Gore is rated at 1112 — 162 points above Fremd's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gore is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Fremd looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Fremd the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gore throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tresean Gore over Josh Fremd. The model gives Gore a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Gore at 41% implied while our model sees 55% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-7) taking on Dustin Jacoby (10-6-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jr. at 1559 versus Jacoby at 1411. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jacoby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over Khalil Rountree Jr.. The model gives Jacoby a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Jr. at 38% implied while our model sees 42% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-5) taking on Phil Hawes (4-4).

Dolidze is rated at 1555 — 724 points above Hawes's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dolidze's knockout artist game against Hawes's all-rounder approach. Dolidze is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hawes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hawes throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Dolidze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Dolidze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Hawes over Roman Dolidze. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hawes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Dolidze at 37% implied while our model sees 49% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (11-7) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-18). Arlovski is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lima is rated at 1346 — 353 points above Arlovski's 993. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lima looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lima the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Andrei Arlovski. The model is firm on this one: Lima at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Lima at 69% implied while our model sees 81% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features JunYong Park (9-4) taking on Joseph Holmes (1-3). Holmes is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Park is rated at 1324 — 662 points above Holmes's 662. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Park throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Holmes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JunYong Park over Joseph Holmes. The model gives Park a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Steve Garcia (8-2) taking on Chase Hooper (8-5).

Garcia is rated at 1656 — 526 points above Hooper's 1130. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Garcia rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Garcia's knockout artist game against Hooper's wrestler approach. Garcia is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hooper looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooper throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Steve Garcia. We're leaning Hooper here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Cody Durden (6-8-1) taking on Carlos Mota (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Durden.

Durden carries a modest Elo edge (915 to 840), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Durden throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Mota has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Mota over Cody Durden. The model gives Mota a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 40% for Durden, but our model sees only 36%. That 4-point gap favoring Mota is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Christian Rodriguez (5-4) taking on Joshua Weems (0-1).

Rodriguez is rated at 1134 — 316 points above Weems's 819. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Weems has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Rodriguez over Joshua Weems. The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.