UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
Saturday, August 6, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jamahal Hill won by KO/TKO (R4)
Hill 72%28% Santos
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-1.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Santos)
WelterweightMISS
Geoff Neal won by KO/TKO (R3)
Neal 35%65% Luque
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (-1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -212(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Neal)
HeavyweightMISS
Mohammed Usman won by KO/TKO (R2)
Usman 32%68% Pauga
CONFIDENTMarket: 29% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Pauga)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Pauga)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pauga)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Juliana Miller won by KO/TKO (R3)
Miller 65%35% Walker
LEANMarket: 56% (+8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Walker)
HeavyweightHIT
Serghei Spivac won by KO/TKO (R2)
Spivac 74%26% Sakai
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +132(favors Spivac)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Spivac)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Spivac)
LightweightHIT
Terrance McKinney won by Submission (R1)
McKinney 82%18% Gonzalez
STRONGMarket: 88% (-6.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +216(favors McKinney)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors McKinney)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors McKinney)
MiddleweightHIT
Michal Oleksiejczuk won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oleksiejczuk 88%12% Alvey
STRONGMarket: 83% (+5.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +361(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Oleksiejczuk)
WelterweightHIT
Bryan Battle won by KO/TKO (R1)
Battle 76%24% Sato
STRONGMarket: 72% (+3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +115(favors Battle)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Battle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Battle)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Cory McKenna won by Submission (R2)
McKenna 68%32% Granger
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +191(favors McKenna)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors McKenna)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors McKenna)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Mayra Bueno Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 55%45% Egger
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (+1.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -104(favors Egger)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Egger)