UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jamahal Hill (6-4) taking on Thiago Santos (14-10). Hill is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Hill carries a modest Elo edge (1504 to 1426), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamahal Hill over Thiago Santos. The model is firm on this one: Hill at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Hill at 74% implied while our model sees 78% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Geoff Neal (8-6) taking on Vicente Luque (16-8).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Neal at 1442, Luque at 1414. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Neal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Geoff Neal. The model gives Luque a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Neal at 37% implied while our model sees 42% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mohammed Usman (4-2) taking on Zac Pauga (1-3). Usman will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Usman is rated at 1113 — 427 points above Pauga's 687. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pauga throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pauga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pauga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zac Pauga over Mohammed Usman. We're leaning Pauga here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Usman at 29% implied while our model sees 34% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Juliana Miller (2-3) taking on Brogan Walker (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Miller.

Miller is rated at 900 — 222 points above Walker's 678. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Juliana Miller over Brogan Walker. We're leaning Miller here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Miller at 56% implied while our model sees 66% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Serghei Spivac (9-6) taking on Augusto Sakai (5-4).

Spivac is rated at 1490 — 271 points above Sakai's 1219. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Spivac's wrestler game against Sakai's striker approach. Spivac looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sakai brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spivac throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Spivac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Serghei Spivac over Augusto Sakai. The model is firm on this one: Spivac at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Spivac at 72% implied while our model sees 82% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Terrance McKinney (8-5) taking on Erick Gonzalez (0-3).

McKinney is rated at 1302 — 555 points above Gonzalez's 747. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKinney throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McKinney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. McKinney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terrance McKinney over Erick Gonzalez. The model is firm on this one: McKinney at 90%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Michal Oleksiejczuk (10-7) taking on Sam Alvey (10-13-1).

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1312 — 450 points above Alvey's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oleksiejczuk's striker game against Alvey's all-rounder approach. Oleksiejczuk brings a versatile approach, while Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleksiejczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Sam Alvey. The model is firm on this one: Oleksiejczuk at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Oleksiejczuk at 83% implied while our model sees 87% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Battle (7-1) taking on Takashi Sato (2-5). Battle is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Battle is rated at 1520 — 620 points above Sato's 900. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Battle's all-rounder game against Sato's striker approach. Battle is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sato brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Battle throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Battle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sato has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Battle over Takashi Sato. We're leaning Battle here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cory McKenna (3-3) taking on Miranda Granger (1-3). Granger is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

McKenna is rated at 966 — 313 points above Granger's 653. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKenna throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McKenna is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Granger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cory McKenna over Miranda Granger. We're leaning McKenna here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has McKenna at 64% implied while our model sees 68% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Mayra Bueno Silva (5-6-1) taking on Stephanie Egger (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1070 versus Egger at 935. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Egger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva over Stephanie Egger. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.