UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Saturday, July 16, 2022·Elmont, New York, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Yair Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rodriguez 58%42% Ortega
LEANMarket: 37% (+21.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -175(favors Ortega)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Ortega)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Amanda Lemos won by Submission (R2)
Lemos 75%25% Waterson-Gomez
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +109(favors Lemos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Lemos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Lemos)
WelterweightMISS
Li Jingliang won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jingliang 44%56% Salikhov
LEANMarket: 42% (+2.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors Salikhov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Jingliang)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Jingliang)
FlyweightMISS
Matt Schnell won by Submission (R2)
Schnell 32%68% Sumudaerji
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -47(favors Sumudaerji)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Sumudaerji)
FeatherweightHIT
Shane Burgos won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Burgos 50%50% Jourdain
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-11.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Burgos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jourdain)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Lauren Murphy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Murphy 33%67% Tate
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (-1.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +191(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Tate)
MiddleweightHIT
Punahele Soriano won by KO/TKO (R2)
Soriano 78%22% Lungiambula
STRONGMarket: 70% (+8.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +242(favors Soriano)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Lungiambula)
BantamweightHIT
Ricky Simon won by Submission (R2)
Simon 50%50% Shore
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+12.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +116(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Shore)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Simon)
FeatherweightHIT
Bill Algeo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Algeo 66%34% Burns
CONFIDENTMarket: 66%
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +55(favors Algeo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Algeo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.5(favors Burns)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Dustin Jacoby won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jacoby 37%63% Jung
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Jung)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Jung)
MiddleweightHIT
Dustin Stoltzfus won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stoltzfus 56%44% Grant
LEANMarket: 55% (+0.8% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -131(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Stoltzfus)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Emily Ducote won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ducote 53%47% Penne
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-7.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -38(favors Penne)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Penne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Penne)