UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Saturday, July 16, 2022·Elmont, New York, USA·12 fights
Model: 6/12(50%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Yair Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rodriguez 56%44% Ortega
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 37% (+19.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -157(favors Ortega)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Ortega)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Amanda Lemos won by Submission (R2)
Lemos 66%34% Waterson-Gomez
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +126(favors Lemos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Lemos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Lemos)
WelterweightMISS
Li Jingliang won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jingliang 44%56% Salikhov
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 42% (+1.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -168(favors Salikhov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Jingliang)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Jingliang)
FlyweightMISS
Matt Schnell won by Submission (R2)
Schnell 37%63% Sumudaerji
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -35(favors Sumudaerji)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Sumudaerji)
FeatherweightHIT
Shane Burgos won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Burgos 54%46% Jourdain
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-8.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +129(favors Burgos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jourdain)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Lauren Murphy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Murphy 41%59% Tate
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
LEANMarket: 35% (+5.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +155(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Tate)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Punahele Soriano won by KO/TKO (R2)
Soriano 74%26% Lungiambula
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+4.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +267(favors Soriano)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Lungiambula)
BantamweightMISS
Ricky Simon won by Submission (R2)
Simon 46%54% Shore
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+8.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +143(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Shore)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Simon)
FeatherweightHIT
Bill Algeo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Algeo 73%27% Burns
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+7.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Algeo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Algeo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.5(favors Burns)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Dustin Jacoby won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jacoby 48%52% Jung
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -138(favors Jung)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Jung)
MiddleweightMISS
Dustin Stoltzfus won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stoltzfus 50%50% Grant
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-5.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -255(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Stoltzfus)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Emily Ducote won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ducote 58%42% Penne
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 61% (-2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -24(favors Penne)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Penne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Penne)