UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Yair Rodriguez (11-4) taking on Brian Ortega (8-5). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez carries a modest Elo edge (1705 to 1653), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortega is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over Brian Ortega. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 37% implied while our model sees 56% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-6) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-9). Lemos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lemos is rated at 1366 — 356 points above Waterson-Gomez's 1010. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lemos's knockout artist game against Waterson-Gomez's all-rounder approach. Lemos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Waterson-Gomez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lemos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lemos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Lemos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Lemos over Michelle Waterson-Gomez. We're leaning Lemos here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-7) taking on Muslim Salikhov (9-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jingliang at 1397 versus Salikhov at 1313. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Salikhov has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muslim Salikhov over Li Jingliang. The model gives Salikhov a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Matt Schnell (7-8) taking on Sumudaerji (6-4).

Sumudaerji is rated at 1173 — 184 points above Schnell's 989. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Sumudaerji has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sumudaerji is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sumudaerji over Matt Schnell. The model gives Sumudaerji a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Burgos (8-3) taking on Charles Jourdain (8-7-1). Burgos is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Burgos at 1426 versus Jourdain at 1344. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burgos throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jourdain is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Burgos over Charles Jourdain. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Burgos at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Burgos, but our model sees only 54%. That 8-point gap favoring Jourdain is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Lauren Murphy (8-7) taking on Miesha Tate (7-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Murphy at 1242 versus Tate at 1128. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy. The model gives Tate a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Murphy at 35% implied while our model sees 41% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Punahele Soriano (7-4) taking on Dalcha Lungiambula (2-5). Lungiambula will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Soriano is rated at 1324 — 592 points above Lungiambula's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Soriano rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Soriano's wrestler game against Lungiambula's striker approach. Soriano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lungiambula brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lungiambula is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Lungiambula has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Punahele Soriano over Dalcha Lungiambula. We're leaning Soriano here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Soriano at 70% implied while our model sees 74% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-6-1) taking on Jack Shore (6-3). Shore is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Simon is rated at 1297 — 167 points above Shore's 1130. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shore throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Shore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Shore over Ricky Simon. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shore at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Simon at 38% implied while our model sees 46% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Bill Algeo (5-5) taking on Herbert Burns (2-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Algeo.

Algeo is rated at 961 — 202 points above Burns's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Algeo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Burns is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burns the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Algeo throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Algeo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bill Algeo over Herbert Burns. We're leaning Algeo here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Algeo at 66% implied while our model sees 73% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (10-6-1) taking on Da Woon Jung (4-4-1).

Jacoby is rated at 1411 — 339 points above Jung's 1072. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jacoby's striker game against Jung's all-rounder approach. Jacoby brings a versatile approach, while Jung is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jung is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da Woon Jung over Dustin Jacoby. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jung at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Dustin Stoltzfus (3-7) taking on Dwight Grant (3-5).

Stoltzfus is rated at 1071 — 212 points above Grant's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stoltzfus's submission artist game against Grant's striker approach. Stoltzfus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Grant brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoltzfus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dwight Grant over Dustin Stoltzfus. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grant at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Stoltzfus, but our model sees only 50%. That 5-point gap favoring Grant is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Emily Ducote (2-3) taking on Jessica Penne (3-6). Penne is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Ducote is rated at 960 — 154 points above Penne's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penne throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Penne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ducote has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Emily Ducote over Jessica Penne. The model gives Ducote a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.