UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic
Saturday, May 14, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 4/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Jan Blachowicz won by KO/TKO (R3)
Blachowicz 33%67% Rakic
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (-1.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +225(favors Blachowicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Rakic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Blachowicz)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ryan Spann won by Submission (R1)
Spann 30%70% Cutelaba
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-0.8% edge)
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +95(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.4(favors Cutelaba)
BantamweightHIT
Davey Grant won by KO/TKO (R3)
Grant 68%32% Smolka
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +212(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Smolka)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cerminara 46%54% Ribas
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +180(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Cerminara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Ribas)
LightweightHIT
Manuel Torres won by KO/TKO (R1)
Torres 54%46% Camacho
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-0.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Torres)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.0(favors Camacho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Camacho)
FlyweightMISS
Allan Nascimento won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nascimento 27%73% Hadley
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (-7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -56(favors Hadley)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Nascimento)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hadley)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Viviane Araujo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Araujo 39%61% Lee
LEANMarket: 46% (-7.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -96(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Lee)
LightweightMISS
Michael Johnson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Johnson 41%59% Patrick
LEANMarket: 59% (-17.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -220(favors Patrick)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Patrick)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Virna Jandiroba won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jandiroba 64%36% Hill
LEANMarket: 65% (-1.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +76(favors Jandiroba)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Jandiroba)
FlyweightHIT
Tatsuro Taira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Taira 81%19% Candelario
STRONGMarket: 74% (+7.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Candelario)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Candelario)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Candelario)
MiddleweightMISS
Andre Petroski won by Submission (R1)
Petroski 23%77% Maximov
STRONGMarket: 22% (+1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -19(favors Maximov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Petroski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Maximov)