UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-2) taking on Aleksandar Rakic (6-5).

Blachowicz is rated at 1703 — 291 points above Rakic's 1413. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rakic throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksandar Rakic over Jan Blachowicz. The model gives Rakic a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Blachowicz at 35% implied while our model sees 39% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Spann (9-6) taking on Ion Cutelaba (9-10-1). Spann is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cutelaba at 1305 versus Spann at 1216. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Spann's submission artist game against Cutelaba's knockout artist approach. Spann is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Cutelaba is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.4 more per 15 minutes. Cutelaba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Ryan Spann. We're leaning Cutelaba here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Davey Grant (8-7) taking on Louis Smolka (8-9).

Grant is rated at 1291 — 339 points above Smolka's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Smolka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Smolka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Davey Grant over Louis Smolka. We're leaning Grant here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for Grant, but our model sees only 67%. That 4-point gap favoring Smolka is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-6) taking on Amanda Ribas (7-6). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cerminara is rated at 1356 — 193 points above Ribas's 1163. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerminara throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Katlyn Cerminara. The model gives Ribas a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Manuel Torres (5-1) taking on Frank Camacho (2-6).

Torres is rated at 1559 — 771 points above Camacho's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Torres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Camacho brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Torres the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camacho throws significantly more leather — a 7.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Camacho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Torres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manuel Torres over Frank Camacho. The model gives Torres a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Torres at 54% implied while our model sees 59% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Allan Nascimento (4-1) taking on Jake Hadley (3-4).

Nascimento is rated at 1393 — 405 points above Hadley's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nascimento rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Nascimento looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hadley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nascimento the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nascimento throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hadley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hadley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Hadley over Allan Nascimento. We're leaning Hadley here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 35% for Nascimento, but our model sees only 31%. That 3-point gap favoring Hadley is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Viviane Araujo (7-6) taking on Andrea Lee (5-9).

Araujo is rated at 1282 — 320 points above Lee's 962. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrea Lee over Viviane Araujo. The model gives Lee a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Araujo, but our model sees only 39%. That 6-point gap favoring Lee is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (16-16) taking on Alan Patrick (5-4).

Johnson is rated at 1155 — 212 points above Patrick's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Patrick's wrestler approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Patrick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Patrick over Michael Johnson. The model gives Patrick a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Johnson, but our model sees only 41%. That 18-point gap favoring Patrick is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Virna Jandiroba (9-4) taking on Angela Hill (13-16).

Jandiroba is rated at 1586 — 439 points above Hill's 1147. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jandiroba's wrestler game against Hill's striker approach. Jandiroba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hill brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Angela Hill. We're leaning Jandiroba here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Tatsuro Taira (8-1) taking on Carlos Candelario (0-2).

Taira is rated at 1677 — 984 points above Candelario's 693. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Candelario throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Candelario is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Candelario has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatsuro Taira over Carlos Candelario. The model is firm on this one: Taira at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Taira at 74% implied while our model sees 82% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Petroski (8-4) taking on Nick Maximov (2-2). Maximov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Petroski at 1060 versus Maximov at 934. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petroski throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Maximov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Petroski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nick Maximov over Andre Petroski. We're leaning Maximov here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Petroski at 22% implied while our model sees 33% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.