UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
Saturday, September 13, 2025·San Antonio, Texas, USA·14 fights
Model: 7/13(54%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightMISS
Diego Lopes won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lopes 33%67% Silva
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (+0.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +59(favors Lopes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Lopes)
BantamweightHIT
David Martinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martinez 55%45% Font
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+8.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -533(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Font)
LightweightHIT
Rafa Garcia won by KO/TKO (R3)
Garcia 65%35% Gordon
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Garcia)
MiddleweightMISS
Kelvin Gastelum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gastelum 49%51% Stoltzfus
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +353(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Stoltzfus)
LightweightMISS
Alexander Hernandez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hernandez 47%53% Ferreira
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -119(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Hernandez)
BantamweightMISS
Santiago Luna won by KO/TKO (R1)
Luna 50%50% Le
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -31(favors Le)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Le)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Le)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Dusko Todorovic won by Submission (R1)
Todorovic 69%31% Medina
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -13(favors Medina)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Todorovic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Todorovic)
LightweightMISS
Joaquim Silva won by Decision - Split (R3)
Silva 32%68% Puelles
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -104(favors Puelles)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Puelles)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tatiana Suarez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Suarez 61%39% Lemos
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +72(favors Suarez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Suarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Suarez)
FlyweightHIT
Jesus Aguilar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aguilar 62%38% Gurule
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +368(favors Aguilar)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Gurule)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Gurule)
Middleweight
Reese 62%38% Dumas
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +165(favors Reese)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Reese)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Reese)
FlyweightHIT
Alden Coria won by KO/TKO (R3)
Coria 50%50% Costa
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -133(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Costa)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Montse Rendon won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rendon 42%58% Pereira
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -44(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Rendon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Rendon)
WelterweightHIT
Daniil Donchenko won by KO/TKO (R1)
Donchenko 53%47% Sezinando
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Sezinando)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Sezinando)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sezinando)