UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Lopes (6-3) taking on Jean Silva (6-1). Lopes is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lopes at 1762 versus Silva at 1677. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lopes's all-rounder game against Silva's knockout artist approach. Lopes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jean Silva over Diego Lopes. We're leaning Silva here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features David Martinez (3-0) taking on Rob Font (12-9). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Martinez at 1529 versus Font at 1406. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Martinez over Rob Font. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martinez at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Martinez at 46% implied while our model sees 55% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafa Garcia (6-4) taking on Jared Gordon (9-7).

Garcia is rated at 1478 — 177 points above Gordon's 1301. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Garcia's wrestler game against Gordon's striker approach. Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gordon brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafa Garcia over Jared Gordon. We're leaning Garcia here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (14-10) taking on Dustin Stoltzfus (3-7). Stoltzfus is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gastelum is rated at 1457 — 386 points above Stoltzfus's 1071. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stoltzfus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stoltzfus the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoltzfus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Stoltzfus over Kelvin Gastelum. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stoltzfus at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (10-7) taking on Diego Ferreira (10-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hernandez at 1446 versus Ferreira at 1327. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's striker game against Ferreira's all-rounder approach. Hernandez brings a versatile approach, while Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Ferreira over Alexander Hernandez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ferreira at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Santiago Luna (2-0) taking on Quang Le (1-3). Luna is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Luna is rated at 1237 — 415 points above Le's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Le throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Le is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Luna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Quang Le over Santiago Luna. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Le at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Dusko Todorovic (4-6) taking on Jose Daniel Medina (0-4).

Todorovic is rated at 851 — 304 points above Medina's 546. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Todorovic throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Todorovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Todorovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dusko Todorovic over Jose Daniel Medina. We're leaning Todorovic here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Joaquim Silva (7-5) taking on Claudio Puelles (5-4). Puelles is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1170 to 1125), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Puelles's wrestler approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Puelles looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Puelles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudio Puelles over Joaquim Silva. We're leaning Puelles here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (8-1) taking on Amanda Lemos (9-6).

Suarez is rated at 1629 — 262 points above Lemos's 1366. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Suarez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lemos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Suarez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Suarez throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Suarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Amanda Lemos. The model gives Suarez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jesus Aguilar (4-3) taking on Luis Gurule (0-3).

Aguilar is rated at 1024 — 329 points above Gurule's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gurule throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gurule is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Gurule has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jesus Aguilar over Luis Gurule. The model gives Aguilar a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Zach Reese (4-3) taking on Sedriques Dumas (3-4).

Reese is rated at 1013 — 165 points above Dumas's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Reese's wrestler game against Dumas's striker approach. Reese looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dumas brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reese throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Reese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Dumas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zach Reese over Sedriques Dumas. The model gives Reese a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Alden Coria (2-0) taking on Alessandro Costa (3-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Coria.

Coria is rated at 1271 — 253 points above Costa's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Costa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Coria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alden Coria over Alessandro Costa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Coria at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Montse Rendon (2-2) taking on Alice Pereira (1-1). Pereira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pereira at 1048 versus Rendon at 913. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rendon throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rendon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alice Pereira over Montse Rendon. The model gives Pereira a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniil Donchenko (2-0) taking on Rodrigo Sezinando (0-1).

Donchenko is rated at 1275 — 467 points above Sezinando's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sezinando throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sezinando is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sezinando has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniil Donchenko over Rodrigo Sezinando. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Donchenko at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.