UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Lopes (6-2) taking on Jean Silva (5-1). Lopes is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Lopes carries a modest Elo edge (1614 to 1537), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Lopes's all-rounder game against Silva's knockout artist approach. Lopes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jean Silva over Diego Lopes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features David Martinez (1-0) taking on Rob Font (12-7). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Font at 1361 versus Martinez at 1225. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Font over David Martinez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Font at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafa Garcia (5-4) taking on Jared Gordon (9-6).

Garcia is rated at 1419 — 210 points above Gordon's 1209. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Garcia's wrestler game against Gordon's striker approach. Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gordon brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafa Garcia over Jared Gordon. We're leaning Garcia here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Dustin Stoltzfus (3-6). Stoltzfus is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gastelum is rated at 1340 — 328 points above Stoltzfus's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stoltzfus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stoltzfus the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoltzfus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Dustin Stoltzfus. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gastelum at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (9-7) taking on Diego Ferreira (10-6).

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 256 points above Ferreira's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's striker game against Ferreira's all-rounder approach. Hernandez brings a versatile approach, while Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Diego Ferreira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hernandez at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Santiago Luna (0-0) taking on Quang Le (1-2). Luna is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Luna is rated at 1129 — 254 points above Le's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Le throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Le is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Luna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Santiago Luna over Quang Le. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Luna at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Dusko Todorovic (3-6) taking on Jose Daniel Medina (0-2).

Todorovic is rated at 871 — 194 points above Medina's 678. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Todorovic throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Todorovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Todorovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dusko Todorovic over Jose Daniel Medina. The model gives Todorovic a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Joaquim Silva (6-5) taking on Claudio Puelles (5-3). Puelles is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1139 versus Puelles at 1040. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Puelles's wrestler approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Puelles looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Puelles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudio Puelles over Joaquim Silva. We're leaning Puelles here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (7-1) taking on Amanda Lemos (9-4).

Suarez is rated at 1531 — 196 points above Lemos's 1335. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Suarez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lemos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Suarez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Suarez throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Suarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Amanda Lemos. We're leaning Suarez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Jesus Aguilar (3-2) taking on Luis Gurule (0-2).

Aguilar is rated at 1087 — 325 points above Gurule's 761. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gurule throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gurule is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Gurule has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jesus Aguilar over Luis Gurule. The model gives Aguilar a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Zach Reese (4-2) taking on Sedriques Dumas (3-3).

Reese is rated at 993 — 176 points above Dumas's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Reese's wrestler game against Dumas's striker approach. Reese looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dumas brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reese throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Reese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Dumas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zach Reese over Sedriques Dumas. The model gives Reese a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Alden Coria (1-0) taking on Alessandro Costa (2-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Coria.

Coria is rated at 1179 — 245 points above Costa's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Costa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Coria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alden Coria over Alessandro Costa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Coria at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Montse Rendon (1-1) taking on Alice Pereira (0-0). Pereira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rendon at 1051 versus Pereira at 928. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rendon throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rendon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alice Pereira over Montse Rendon. We're leaning Pereira here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniil Donchenko (1-0) taking on Rodrigo Sezinando (0-0).

Donchenko is rated at 1165 — 292 points above Sezinando's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sezinando throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sezinando is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sezinando has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniil Donchenko over Rodrigo Sezinando. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Donchenko at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.