UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Giga Chikadze (8-3) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Chikadze at 1150, Barboza at 1142. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Chikadze's striker game against Barboza's all-rounder approach. Chikadze brings a versatile approach, while Barboza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chikadze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Chikadze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Giga Chikadze over Edson Barboza. The model gives Chikadze a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Chikadze at 47% implied while our model sees 61% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Bryan Battle (6-1) taking on Gilbert Urbina (1-2).

Battle is rated at 1469 — 639 points above Urbina's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Urbina throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Urbina is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Urbina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Battle over Gilbert Urbina. The model gives Battle a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Battle, but our model sees only 56%. That 6-point gap favoring Urbina is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Turcios (2-2) taking on Brady Hiestand (2-1).

Hiestand is rated at 1238 — 409 points above Turcios's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hiestand throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hiestand is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hiestand has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brady Hiestand over Ricky Turcios. The model gives Hiestand a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Turcios, but our model sees only 45%. That 14-point gap favoring Hiestand is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (9-4) taking on Kevin Lee (11-7). Lee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 297 points above Lee's 1197. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Lee over Daniel Rodriguez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lee at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Petroski (8-3) taking on Micheal Gillmore (0-1).

Petroski is rated at 967 — 188 points above Gillmore's 779. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gillmore throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gillmore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gillmore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Petroski over Micheal Gillmore. The model is firm on this one: Petroski at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Petroski at 82% implied while our model sees 89% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Makhmud Muradov (4-2).

Muradov is rated at 1179 — 312 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Meerschaert throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Muradov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Makhmud Muradov over Gerald Meerschaert. The model is firm on this one: Muradov at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Meerschaert at 15% implied while our model sees 22% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6) taking on Alessio Di Chirico (4-6).

Alhassan is rated at 973 — 186 points above Chirico's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alhassan throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chirico is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Chirico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessio Di Chirico over Abdul Razak Alhassan. We're leaning Chirico here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 32% for Alhassan, but our model sees only 28%. That 3-point gap favoring Chirico is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Wellington Turman (3-5) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1). Alvey is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Turman at 866 versus Alvey at 734. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Turman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Wellington Turman. The model gives Alvey a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 54% for Turman, but our model sees only 43%. That 10-point gap favoring Alvey is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1) taking on Darren Stewart (5-6). Jacoby is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Jacoby is rated at 1374 — 434 points above Stewart's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jacoby's striker game against Stewart's all-rounder approach. Jacoby brings a versatile approach, while Stewart is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over Darren Stewart. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jacoby at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 64% for Jacoby, but our model sees only 50%. That 14-point gap favoring Stewart is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (9-6) taking on Vanessa Demopoulos (5-4). Aldrich is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Aldrich is rated at 1079 — 196 points above Demopoulos's 883. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Aldrich's striker game against Demopoulos's all-rounder approach. Aldrich brings a versatile approach, while Demopoulos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldrich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Demopoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JJ Aldrich over Vanessa Demopoulos. We're leaning Aldrich here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Pat Sabatini (7-2) taking on Jamall Emmers (4-4). Emmers is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Sabatini is rated at 1425 — 248 points above Emmers's 1177. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sabatini's wrestler game against Emmers's striker approach. Sabatini looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Emmers brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmers throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Sabatini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pat Sabatini over Jamall Emmers. We're leaning Sabatini here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Sabatini at 43% implied while our model sees 69% — a 26-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mana Martinez (2-1) taking on Guido Cannetti (4-5). Martinez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cannetti carries a modest Elo edge (1005 to 957), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannetti throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannetti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mana Martinez over Guido Cannetti. We're leaning Martinez here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.