UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka
Saturday, May 1, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 9/10(90%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jiri Prochazka won by KO/TKO (R2)
Prochazka 51%49% Reyes
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-3.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -211(favors Reyes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Prochazka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reyes)
FeatherweightHIT
Giga Chikadze won by KO/TKO (R1)
Chikadze 71%29% Swanson
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+10.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Chikadze)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Chikadze)
Light Heavyweight
Cutelaba 57%43% Jacoby
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 55% (+2.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +6(favors Cutelaba)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Cutelaba)
MiddleweightHIT
Sean Strickland won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Strickland 72%28% Jotko
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+3.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +263(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Jotko)
BantamweightHIT
Merab Dvalishvili won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dvalishvili 80%20% Stamann
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+11.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Dvalishvili)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Dvalishvili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Dvalishvili)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Luana Pinheiro won by DQ (R1)
Pinheiro 62%38% Markos
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
LEANMarket: 61% (+0.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -104(favors Markos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Markos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Markos)
Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
TJ Brown won by Decision - Split (R3)
Brown 60%40% Kamaka
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -87(favors Kamaka)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Kamaka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Brown)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Luana Carolina won by Decision - Split (R3)
Carolina 62%38% Botelho
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 31% (+30.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -178(favors Botelho)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Carolina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Botelho)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Loma Lookboonmee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lookboonmee 88%12% Hughes
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+11.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +171(favors Lookboonmee)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Lookboonmee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Lookboonmee)
MiddleweightHIT
Andreas Michailidis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Michailidis 59%41% Bhullar
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEANMarket: 65% (-6.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -115(favors Bhullar)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Michailidis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bhullar)
FeatherweightMISS
Felipe Colares won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Colares 48%52% Sanders
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+6.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -38(favors Sanders)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Sanders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Colares)