UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jiri Prochazka (5-2) taking on Dominick Reyes (9-4). Prochazka will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Prochazka is rated at 1806 — 277 points above Reyes's 1529. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Reyes has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prochazka throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Prochazka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jiri Prochazka over Dominick Reyes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Prochazka at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Giga Chikadze (8-3) taking on Cub Swanson (14-10). Chikadze is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Swanson at 1255 versus Chikadze at 1150. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chikadze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Chikadze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Giga Chikadze over Cub Swanson. We're leaning Chikadze here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Chikadze at 60% implied while our model sees 67% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1) taking on Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1).

Jacoby is rated at 1374 — 227 points above Cutelaba's 1147. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Dustin Jacoby. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cutelaba at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Krzysztof Jotko (11-5).

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 592 points above Jotko's 1222. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Strickland's knockout artist game against Jotko's all-rounder approach. Strickland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jotko is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jotko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Strickland over Krzysztof Jotko. We're leaning Strickland here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Cody Stamann (7-6-1). Dvalishvili will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dvalishvili is rated at 1867 — 935 points above Stamann's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dvalishvili's wrestler game against Stamann's striker approach. Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stamann brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvalishvili throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Cody Stamann. The model is firm on this one: Dvalishvili at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Dvalishvili at 69% implied while our model sees 82% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Luana Pinheiro (3-3) taking on Randa Markos (6-10-1).

Markos carries a modest Elo edge (974 to 914), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Pinheiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randa Markos over Luana Pinheiro. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Markos at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Pinheiro, but our model sees only 49%. That 13-point gap favoring Markos is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features TJ Brown (3-4) taking on Kai Kamaka (1-2). Brown is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Brown carries a modest Elo edge (876 to 815), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kamaka throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Brown over Kai Kamaka. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brown at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Luana Carolina (6-3) taking on Poliana Botelho (3-3).

Carolina is rated at 1036 — 177 points above Botelho's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Carolina rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carolina throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Botelho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Carolina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Poliana Botelho over Luana Carolina. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Botelho at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Carolina at 31% implied while our model sees 48% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loma Lookboonmee (7-2) taking on Sam Hughes (5-5). Hughes is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hughes at 1232 versus Lookboonmee at 1089. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Lookboonmee rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lookboonmee throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lookboonmee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Lookboonmee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loma Lookboonmee over Sam Hughes. The model is firm on this one: Lookboonmee at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Lookboonmee at 77% implied while our model sees 89% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Andreas Michailidis (1-2) taking on KB Bhullar (0-1). Bhullar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Michailidis at 802, Bhullar at 826. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Michailidis throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bhullar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Michailidis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andreas Michailidis over KB Bhullar. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Michailidis at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Felipe Colares (2-3) taking on Luke Sanders (3-4). Colares is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Colares at 875, Sanders at 891. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Colares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sanders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Colares the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanders throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Colares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Felipe Colares over Luke Sanders. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Colares at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Colares at 42% implied while our model sees 52% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.