UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jiri Prochazka (6-2) taking on Dominick Reyes (9-5). Prochazka will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Prochazka is rated at 1919 — 340 points above Reyes's 1579. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prochazka throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Prochazka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jiri Prochazka over Dominick Reyes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Prochazka at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 54% for Prochazka, but our model sees only 51%. That 3-point gap favoring Reyes is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Giga Chikadze (8-4) taking on Cub Swanson (15-10). Chikadze is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Swanson carries a modest Elo edge (1323 to 1280), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chikadze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Chikadze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Giga Chikadze over Cub Swanson. We're leaning Chikadze here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Chikadze at 60% implied while our model sees 71% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (9-10-1) taking on Dustin Jacoby (10-6-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jacoby at 1411 versus Cutelaba at 1305. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Dustin Jacoby. The model gives Cutelaba a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Sean Strickland (17-7) taking on Krzysztof Jotko (11-6).

Strickland is rated at 1832 — 559 points above Jotko's 1273. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Strickland's knockout artist game against Jotko's all-rounder approach. Strickland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jotko is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jotko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Strickland over Krzysztof Jotko. We're leaning Strickland here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Strickland at 69% implied while our model sees 72% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-3) taking on Cody Stamann (7-7-1). Dvalishvili will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dvalishvili is rated at 1939 — 868 points above Stamann's 1072. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dvalishvili's wrestler game against Stamann's striker approach. Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stamann brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvalishvili throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Cody Stamann. The model is firm on this one: Dvalishvili at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Dvalishvili at 69% implied while our model sees 80% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Luana Pinheiro (3-4) taking on Randa Markos (7-10-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Markos at 1001 versus Pinheiro at 897. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Pinheiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Pinheiro over Randa Markos. The model gives Pinheiro a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features TJ Brown (3-5) taking on Kai Kamaka (2-2-1). Brown is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brown at 917 versus Kamaka at 828. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kamaka throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Brown over Kai Kamaka. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Luana Carolina (6-4) taking on Poliana Botelho (3-4).

Carolina is rated at 1047 — 186 points above Botelho's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Carolina rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carolina throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Botelho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Carolina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Carolina over Poliana Botelho. The model gives Carolina a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Carolina at 31% implied while our model sees 62% — a 30-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loma Lookboonmee (7-3) taking on Sam Hughes (6-6). Hughes is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hughes at 1201 versus Lookboonmee at 1097. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Both fighters bring momentum: Lookboonmee rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Hughes has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lookboonmee throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lookboonmee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Lookboonmee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loma Lookboonmee over Sam Hughes. The model is firm on this one: Lookboonmee at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Lookboonmee at 77% implied while our model sees 88% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Andreas Michailidis (1-3) taking on KB Bhullar (0-2). Bhullar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Michailidis at 738, Bhullar at 756. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Michailidis throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bhullar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Michailidis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andreas Michailidis over KB Bhullar. The model gives Michailidis a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Michailidis, but our model sees only 59%. That 6-point gap favoring Bhullar is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Felipe Colares (2-4) taking on Luke Sanders (3-5). Colares is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Colares at 901, Sanders at 914. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Colares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sanders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Colares the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanders throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Colares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Sanders over Felipe Colares. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sanders at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Colares at 42% implied while our model sees 48% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.