UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Saturday, January 23, 2021·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Dustin Poirier won by KO/TKO (R2)
Poirier 62%38% McGregor
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +65(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Poirier)
LightweightMISS
Michael Chandler won by KO/TKO (R1)
Chandler 26%74% Hooker
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -537(favors Hooker)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.0(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Hooker)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Joanne Wood won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wood 60%40% Eye
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -128(favors Eye)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Wood)
MiddleweightHIT
Makhmud Muradov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Muradov 60%40% Sanchez
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Muradov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Sanchez)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Marina Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rodriguez 27%73% Ribas
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -220(favors Ribas)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Ribas)
LightweightHIT
Arman Tsarukyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tsarukyan 66%34% Frevola
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +78(favors Tsarukyan)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Tsarukyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Frevola)
MiddleweightMISS
Brad Tavares won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tavares 32%68% Junior
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -96(favors Junior)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Junior)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Julianna Pena won by Submission (R3)
Pena 77%23% McMann
STRONG
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors McMann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors McMann)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Marcin Prachnio won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Prachnio 42%58% Jr.
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -311(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jr.)
Catch WeightHIT
Movsar Evloev won by Decision - Split (R3)
Evloev 72%28% Lentz
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +54(favors Evloev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Lentz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Evloev)
FlyweightHIT
Amir Albazi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Albazi 65%35% Zhumagulov
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +192(favors Albazi)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Zhumagulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Albazi)