UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Conor McGregor (10-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Poirier at 1681 versus McGregor at 1573. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Poirier's all-rounder game against McGregor's striker approach. Poirier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McGregor brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Poirier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Conor McGregor. The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Chandler (2-4) taking on Dan Hooker (14-9). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hooker at 1450 versus Chandler at 1319. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Chandler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Hooker over Michael Chandler. We're leaning Hooker here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Joanne Wood (8-8) taking on Jessica Eye (5-9).

Wood is rated at 1101 — 151 points above Eye's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Wood's all-rounder game against Eye's striker approach. Wood is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Eye brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Wood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanne Wood over Jessica Eye. The model gives Wood a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Makhmud Muradov (4-2) taking on Andrew Sanchez (5-4).

Muradov is rated at 1179 — 247 points above Sanchez's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Muradov's wrestler game against Sanchez's striker approach. Muradov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sanchez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Muradov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Makhmud Muradov over Andrew Sanchez. The model gives Muradov a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2) taking on Amanda Ribas (7-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rodriguez at 1059, Ribas at 1048. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Marina Rodriguez. We're leaning Ribas here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Arman Tsarukyan (9-2) taking on Matt Frevola (5-5-1).

Tsarukyan is rated at 1836 — 743 points above Frevola's 1093. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Tsarukyan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach, while Frevola is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Frevola the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tsarukyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Frevola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Frevola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan over Matt Frevola. We're leaning Tsarukyan here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4). Junior will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Junior is rated at 1144 — 220 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tavares's striker game against Junior's wrestler approach. Tavares brings a versatile approach, while Junior looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Brad Tavares. We're leaning Junior here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julianna Pena (8-3) taking on Sara McMann (6-6). Pena will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pena is rated at 1323 — 165 points above McMann's 1158. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. McMann throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. McMann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julianna Pena over Sara McMann. The model is firm on this one: Pena at 77%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Prachnio (4-6) taking on Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6). Jr. will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jr. is rated at 1506 — 688 points above Prachnio's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Prachnio brings a versatile approach, while Jr. is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Jr. the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khalil Rountree Jr. over Marcin Prachnio. The model gives Jr. a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Movsar Evloev (8-0) taking on Nik Lentz (14-8-1). Evloev will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Evloev is rated at 1715 — 556 points above Lentz's 1159. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Evloev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Evloev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lentz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Evloev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Evloev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Evloev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Movsar Evloev over Nik Lentz. We're leaning Evloev here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Amir Albazi (5-1) taking on Zhalgas Zhumagulov (1-5).

Albazi is rated at 1267 — 503 points above Zhumagulov's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Albazi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Zhumagulov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Zhumagulov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zhumagulov throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Albazi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Albazi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amir Albazi over Zhalgas Zhumagulov. We're leaning Albazi here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.