UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Brandon Moreno (11-5-2). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Figueiredo at 1490 versus Moreno at 1410. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Figueiredo is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Figueiredo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Figueiredo throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Deiveson Figueiredo. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Tony Ferguson (15-8).

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 781 points above Ferguson's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Ferguson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Tony Ferguson. We're leaning Oliveira here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mackenzie Dern (10-5) taking on Virna Jandiroba (8-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dern at 1472, Jandiroba at 1457. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Jandiroba has won 5 straight.

The style clash matters here: Dern is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Jandiroba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Jandiroba the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dern throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Dern has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Mackenzie Dern. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jandiroba at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Jacare Souza (9-6). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Holland carries a modest Elo edge (1257 to 1187), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Holland's knockout artist game against Souza's all-rounder approach. Holland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Souza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Jacare Souza. We're leaning Holland here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Junior Dos Santos (15-7). Gane will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gane is rated at 1884 — 693 points above Santos's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gane's all-rounder game against Santos's striker approach. Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Santos brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gane throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Junior Dos Santos. We're leaning Gane here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Daniel Pineda (5-7).

Swanson is rated at 1255 — 276 points above Pineda's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Swanson's striker game against Pineda's wrestler approach. Swanson brings a versatile approach, while Pineda looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pineda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Pineda over Cub Swanson. The model gives Pineda a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Fiziev (7-4) taking on Renato Moicano (12-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Moicano.

Moicano is rated at 1542 — 229 points above Fiziev's 1312. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Fiziev brings a versatile approach, while Moicano is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Moicano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Rafael Fiziev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moicano at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Gavin Tucker (4-2) taking on Billy Quarantillo (6-4). Quarantillo is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Tucker carries a modest Elo edge (1018 to 965), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Tucker looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Quarantillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tucker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarantillo throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Quarantillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Tucker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gavin Tucker over Billy Quarantillo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tucker at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-7) taking on Sam Hughes (5-5). Hughes is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pennington at 1206, Hughes at 1232. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Hughes over Tecia Pennington. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hughes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Chase Hooper (8-3) taking on Peter Barrett (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Hooper.

Hooper is rated at 1175 — 321 points above Barrett's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hooper rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooper throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Barrett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Peter Barrett. We're leaning Hooper here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.