UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-6-1) taking on Brandon Moreno (11-7-2). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Figueiredo is rated at 1610 — 192 points above Moreno's 1417. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Figueiredo's knockout artist game against Moreno's all-rounder approach. Figueiredo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Figueiredo throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Deiveson Figueiredo. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (25-11) taking on Tony Ferguson (15-9).

Oliveira is rated at 1974 — 720 points above Ferguson's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Ferguson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Tony Ferguson. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mackenzie Dern (11-5) taking on Virna Jandiroba (9-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jandiroba at 1586 versus Dern at 1465. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Dern is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Jandiroba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Jandiroba the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dern throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Dern has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mackenzie Dern over Virna Jandiroba. The model gives Dern a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-12) taking on Jacare Souza (9-7). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Holland at 1375, Souza at 1381. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Holland's knockout artist game against Souza's all-rounder approach. Holland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Souza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Jacare Souza. The model is firm on this one: Holland at 77%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Junior Dos Santos (15-8). Gane will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gane is rated at 1981 — 553 points above Santos's 1427. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gane's all-rounder game against Santos's striker approach. Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Santos brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gane throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Junior Dos Santos. We're leaning Gane here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (15-10) taking on Daniel Pineda (5-8).

Swanson is rated at 1323 — 288 points above Pineda's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Swanson's striker game against Pineda's wrestler approach. Swanson brings a versatile approach, while Pineda looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pineda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Pineda over Cub Swanson. The model gives Pineda a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Fiziev (7-5) taking on Renato Moicano (13-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Moicano.

Moicano is rated at 1641 — 153 points above Fiziev's 1488. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Fiziev's striker game against Moicano's submission artist approach. Fiziev brings a versatile approach, while Moicano is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Rafael Fiziev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moicano at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Gavin Tucker (4-3) taking on Billy Quarantillo (6-5). Quarantillo is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Tucker carries a modest Elo edge (1104 to 1049), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Tucker looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Quarantillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tucker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarantillo throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Quarantillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Tucker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Billy Quarantillo over Gavin Tucker. The model gives Quarantillo a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-8) taking on Sam Hughes (6-6). Hughes is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pennington at 1214, Hughes at 1201. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Hughes has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tecia Pennington over Sam Hughes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pennington at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Chase Hooper (8-5) taking on Peter Barrett (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Hooper.

Hooper is rated at 1130 — 334 points above Barrett's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooper throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Barrett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Peter Barrett. The model gives Hooper a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.