UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Saturday, October 24, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Khabib Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R2)
Nurmagomedov 80%20% Gaethje
STRONGMarket: 74% (+6.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +78(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Nurmagomedov)
MiddleweightHIT
Robert Whittaker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Whittaker 57%43% Cannonier
LEANMarket: 49% (+7.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +167(favors Whittaker)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Whittaker)
HeavyweightHIT
Alexander Volkov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Volkov 79%21% Harris
STRONGMarket: 62% (+16.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +207(favors Volkov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Volkov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Volkov)
MiddleweightHIT
Phil Hawes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hawes 69%31% Malkoun
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Malkoun)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Malkoun)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Malkoun)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Lauren Murphy won by Submission (R2)
Murphy 67%33% Shakirova
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+1.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +246(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Murphy)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Magomed Ankalaev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ankalaev 65%35% Cutelaba
LEANMarket: 74% (-8.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +238(favors Ankalaev)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.5(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Cutelaba)
HeavyweightHIT
Tai Tuivasa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tuivasa 57%43% Struve
LEANMarket: 51% (+5.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Struve)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Tuivasa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Struve)
Catch WeightMISS
Casey Kenney won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kenney 46%54% Wood
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-15.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +71(favors Kenney)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Wood)
WelterweightMISS
Shavkat Rakhmonov won by Submission (R1)
Rakhmonov 46%54% Oliveira
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-5.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -231(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Oliveira)
Light Heavyweight
Jung 64%36% Alvey
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +325(favors Jung)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Jung)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Alvey)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Miranda Maverick won by KO/TKO (R1)
Maverick 85%15% Jojua
STRONGMarket: 78% (+7.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +38(favors Maverick)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Jojua)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Jojua)
LightweightHIT
Joel Alvarez won by Submission (R1)
Alvarez 57%43% Yakovlev
LEANMarket: 61% (-3.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +154(favors Alvarez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Alvarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Yakovlev)