UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Justin Gaethje (9-5).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 212 points above Gaethje's 1847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Nurmagomedov's wrestler game against Gaethje's striker approach. Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gaethje brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Justin Gaethje. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Nurmagomedov at 74% implied while our model sees 80% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Jared Cannonier (11-8). Cannonier will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Whittaker at 1528 versus Cannonier at 1426. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Whittaker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Jared Cannonier. The model gives Whittaker a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Whittaker at 49% implied while our model sees 57% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Walt Harris (6-8). Volkov is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 621 points above Harris's 1133. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkov over Walt Harris. The model is firm on this one: Volkov at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Volkov at 62% implied while our model sees 79% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Phil Hawes (4-3) taking on Jacob Malkoun (4-3). Hawes is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Malkoun is rated at 1322 — 495 points above Hawes's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hawes's all-rounder game against Malkoun's striker approach. Hawes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Malkoun brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malkoun throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Malkoun is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Malkoun has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Hawes over Jacob Malkoun. We're leaning Hawes here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Lauren Murphy (8-6) taking on Liliya Shakirova (0-0).

Murphy is rated at 1171 — 214 points above Shakirova's 957. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Shakirova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lauren Murphy over Liliya Shakirova. We're leaning Murphy here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1) taking on Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1).

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 626 points above Cutelaba's 1147. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Ion Cutelaba. The model gives Ankalaev a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 74% for Ankalaev, but our model sees only 65%. That 9-point gap favoring Cutelaba is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tai Tuivasa (8-8) taking on Stefan Struve (13-10). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Tuivasa is rated at 1107 — 229 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tuivasa's striker game against Struve's all-rounder approach. Tuivasa brings a versatile approach, while Struve is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuivasa throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Struve is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Tuivasa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tai Tuivasa over Stefan Struve. The model gives Tuivasa a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Tuivasa at 51% implied while our model sees 57% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Casey Kenney (5-2) taking on Nathaniel Wood (9-3).

Wood is rated at 1389 — 156 points above Kenney's 1234. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kenney is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Wood looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Wood the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Kenney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over Casey Kenney. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wood at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Kenney, but our model sees only 46%. That 15-point gap favoring Wood is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Shavkat Rakhmonov (6-0) taking on Alex Oliveira (11-9).

Rakhmonov is rated at 1831 — 897 points above Oliveira's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Rakhmonov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Rakhmonov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Oliveira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rakhmonov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Rakhmonov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Shavkat Rakhmonov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 52% for Rakhmonov, but our model sees only 46%. That 6-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Da Woon Jung (4-3-1) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1). Jung is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jung is rated at 979 — 244 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jung looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jung the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jung throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da Woon Jung over Sam Alvey. The model gives Jung a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Miranda Maverick (8-3) taking on Liana Jojua (1-2). Maverick will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maverick is rated at 1264 — 487 points above Jojua's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maverick rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jojua throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Jojua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Maverick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Maverick over Liana Jojua. The model is firm on this one: Maverick at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Maverick at 78% implied while our model sees 85% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joel Alvarez (7-2) taking on Alexander Yakovlev (3-5). Alvarez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Alvarez is rated at 1564 — 594 points above Yakovlev's 970. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Alvarez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvarez throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Yakovlev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Yakovlev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joel Alvarez over Alexander Yakovlev. The model gives Alvarez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Alvarez, but our model sees only 57%. That 3-point gap favoring Yakovlev is worth watching.