UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-9). Edgar will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Edgar at 1185, Munhoz at 1211. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Edgar's all-rounder game against Munhoz's knockout artist approach. Edgar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Munhoz is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pedro Munhoz over Frankie Edgar. We're leaning Munhoz here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Edgar at 30% implied while our model sees 34% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mike Rodriguez (2-4) taking on Marcin Prachnio (4-6). Rodriguez will look to use a 9-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rodriguez at 810, Prachnio at 818. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Prachnio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Prachnio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Rodriguez over Marcin Prachnio. The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 67% implied while our model sees 85% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Solecki (5-3) taking on Austin Hubbard (4-7).

Solecki is rated at 1032 — 215 points above Hubbard's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Solecki looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hubbard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Solecki the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Solecki throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Solecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Hubbard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Solecki over Austin Hubbard. The model gives Solecki a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Solecki at 47% implied while our model sees 61% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Shana Dobson (2-3) taking on Mariya Agapova (2-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dobson at 848, Agapova at 837. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Dobson's striker game against Agapova's submission artist approach. Dobson brings a versatile approach, while Agapova is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Agapova throws significantly more leather — a 7.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dobson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Agapova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mariya Agapova over Shana Dobson. We're leaning Agapova here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dobson at 9% implied while our model sees 31% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (9-4) taking on Dwight Grant (3-4).

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 664 points above Grant's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's all-rounder game against Grant's striker approach. Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Grant brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 7.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez over Dwight Grant. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Rodriguez, but our model sees only 56%. That 8-point gap favoring Grant is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-4) taking on Mizuki (2-1).

Lemos is rated at 1335 — 151 points above Mizuki's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lemos throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lemos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Mizuki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mizuki over Amanda Lemos. The model gives Mizuki a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jordan Wright (2-4) taking on Ike Villanueva (1-4). Wright will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Wright carries a modest Elo edge (693 to 653), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Wright's submission artist game against Villanueva's striker approach. Wright is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Villanueva brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villanueva throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Villanueva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wright has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Wright over Ike Villanueva. We're leaning Wright here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Wright at 52% implied while our model sees 68% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Semelsberger (5-5) taking on Carlton Minus (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Semelsberger.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Semelsberger at 861, Minus at 870. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Minus throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Minus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Minus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlton Minus over Matthew Semelsberger. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Minus at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Catch Weight matchup features Timur Valiev (2-0) taking on Trevin Jones (1-3). Jones will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Valiev is rated at 1105 — 247 points above Jones's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Timur Valiev over Trevin Jones. The model is firm on this one: Valiev at 88%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.