UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-11-1) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-10). Edgar will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Edgar at 1361, Munhoz at 1369. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Edgar's all-rounder game against Munhoz's knockout artist approach. Edgar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Munhoz is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pedro Munhoz over Frankie Edgar. The model gives Munhoz a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Edgar at 30% implied while our model sees 40% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mike Rodriguez (2-5) taking on Marcin Prachnio (4-7). Rodriguez will look to use a 9-inch reach edge to control distance.

Prachnio carries a modest Elo edge (848 to 812), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Prachnio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Prachnio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Rodriguez over Marcin Prachnio. The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 67% implied while our model sees 81% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Solecki (5-4) taking on Austin Hubbard (4-8).

Solecki is rated at 1097 — 229 points above Hubbard's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Solecki looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hubbard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Solecki the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Solecki throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Solecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Hubbard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Solecki over Austin Hubbard. The model gives Solecki a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Solecki at 47% implied while our model sees 64% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Shana Dobson (2-4) taking on Mariya Agapova (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Agapova at 845 versus Dobson at 763. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Dobson's striker game against Agapova's submission artist approach. Dobson brings a versatile approach, while Agapova is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Agapova throws significantly more leather — a 7.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dobson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Agapova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shana Dobson over Mariya Agapova. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dobson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Dobson at 9% implied while our model sees 52% — a 43-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Dwight Grant (3-5).

Rodriguez is rated at 1511 — 653 points above Grant's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's all-rounder game against Grant's striker approach. Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Grant brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 7.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez over Dwight Grant. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Rodriguez, but our model sees only 57%. That 7-point gap favoring Grant is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-6) taking on Mizuki (3-1).

Lemos carries a modest Elo edge (1366 to 1296), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lemos throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lemos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Mizuki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mizuki over Amanda Lemos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mizuki at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jordan Wright (2-5) taking on Ike Villanueva (1-5). Wright will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Wright at 691 versus Villanueva at 603. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Wright is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Villanueva brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Wright the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villanueva throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Villanueva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wright has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Wright over Ike Villanueva. We're leaning Wright here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Wright at 52% implied while our model sees 68% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Semelsberger (5-6) taking on Carlton Minus (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Semelsberger.

Semelsberger carries a modest Elo edge (903 to 826), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Minus throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Minus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Minus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlton Minus over Matthew Semelsberger. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Minus at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Catch Weight matchup features Timur Valiev (2-1) taking on Trevin Jones (1-4). Jones will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Valiev is rated at 1152 — 302 points above Jones's 850. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Timur Valiev over Trevin Jones. The model is firm on this one: Valiev at 88%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.