UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-5) taking on Daniel Cormier (11-3). Miocic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Miocic at 1974, Cormier at 1991. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Miocic's striker game against Cormier's all-rounder approach. Miocic brings a versatile approach, while Cormier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cormier throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Cormier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Daniel Cormier. We're leaning Miocic here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Miocic at 48% implied while our model sees 69% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-11) taking on Sean O'Malley (11-3). O'Malley is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

O'Malley is rated at 1828 — 338 points above Vera's 1489. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Vera is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while O'Malley brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Vera the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Malley throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. O'Malley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean O'Malley over Marlon Vera. The model is firm on this one: O'Malley at 81%. The market implies 28% for Vera, but our model sees only 19%. That 9-point gap favoring O'Malley is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-6) taking on Junior Dos Santos (15-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rozenstruik at 1561 versus Santos at 1427. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rozenstruik throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Junior Dos Santos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rozenstruik at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Daniel Pineda (5-8) taking on Herbert Burns (2-4). Burns is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Pineda is rated at 1034 — 276 points above Burns's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pineda looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Burns is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Pineda the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Burns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Herbert Burns over Daniel Pineda. The model is firm on this one: Burns at 82%. The market implies 28% for Pineda, but our model sees only 18%. That 10-point gap favoring Burns is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-3) taking on John Dodson (10-7). Dvalishvili is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dvalishvili is rated at 1939 — 564 points above Dodson's 1376. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dvalishvili's wrestler game against Dodson's striker approach. Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dodson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvalishvili throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.3 more per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over John Dodson. The model is firm on this one: Dvalishvili at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Dvalishvili at 71% implied while our model sees 82% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Vinc Pichel (7-5) taking on Jim Miller (27-18).

There's a real Elo separation here: Miller at 1295 versus Pichel at 1162. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pichel throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pichel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Pichel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vinc Pichel over Jim Miller. The model gives Pichel a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pichel at 54% implied while our model sees 57% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Virna Jandiroba (9-4) taking on Felice Herrig (5-5).

Jandiroba is rated at 1586 — 699 points above Herrig's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jandiroba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Herrig is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jandiroba the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herrig throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Jandiroba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Felice Herrig. The model is firm on this one: Jandiroba at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Jandiroba at 74% implied while our model sees 77% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Danny Chavez (1-2-1) taking on TJ Brown (3-5). Brown will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brown at 917 versus Chavez at 794. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 12.2 more per 15 minutes. Chavez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Brown over Danny Chavez. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Livinha Souza (3-3) taking on Ashley Yoder (3-8). Yoder is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Souza is rated at 898 — 156 points above Yoder's 742. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yoder throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Livinha Souza over Ashley Yoder. The model gives Souza a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Chris Daukaus (4-4) taking on Parker Porter (4-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Daukaus.

Daukaus is rated at 1216 — 325 points above Porter's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Porter throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Porter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Porter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Daukaus over Parker Porter. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Daukaus at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Kai Kamaka (2-2-1) taking on Tony Kelley (2-2).

Kelley is rated at 1151 — 323 points above Kamaka's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelley throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kelley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kai Kamaka over Tony Kelley. The model is firm on this one: Kamaka at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Kamaka at 70% implied while our model sees 77% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.