UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-6-1) taking on Joseph Benavidez (15-6). Figueiredo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Figueiredo is rated at 1610 — 189 points above Benavidez's 1420. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Figueiredo's knockout artist game against Benavidez's wrestler approach. Figueiredo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Benavidez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Benavidez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Benavidez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over Joseph Benavidez. The model is firm on this one: Figueiredo at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Figueiredo at 68% implied while our model sees 76% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-8) taking on Kelvin Gastelum (14-10). Hermansson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Gastelum is rated at 1457 — 158 points above Hermansson's 1299. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hermansson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hermansson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Jack Hermansson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gastelum at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Fiziev (7-5) taking on Marc Diakiese (8-7). Diakiese is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Fiziev is rated at 1488 — 390 points above Diakiese's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiziev throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Diakiese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Rafael Fiziev. We're leaning Diakiese here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ariane da Silva (6-8) taking on Luana Carolina (6-4).

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1091 to 1047), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Carolina has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Silva's submission artist game against Carolina's striker approach. Silva is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Carolina brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carolina throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Carolina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Carolina over Ariane da Silva. The model gives Carolina a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Askar Askarov (3-1-1) taking on Alexandre Pantoja (14-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pantoja at 1543 versus Askarov at 1436. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Both fighters bring momentum: Askarov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Pantoja has won 8 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pantoja throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Askarov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Askarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandre Pantoja over Askar Askarov. The model gives Pantoja a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-5) taking on Khadis Ibragimov (0-4).

Dolidze is rated at 1555 — 883 points above Ibragimov's 672. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ibragimov throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ibragimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Dolidze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roman Dolidze over Khadis Ibragimov. The model gives Dolidze a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Dolidze, but our model sees only 56%. That 4-point gap favoring Ibragimov is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-2-1) taking on Nad Narimani (2-2). Dawson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dawson is rated at 1453 — 557 points above Narimani's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Narimani throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Narimani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Grant Dawson over Nad Narimani. We're leaning Dawson here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Joel Alvarez (8-2) taking on Joe Duffy (4-4). Alvarez is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Alvarez is rated at 1662 — 630 points above Duffy's 1032. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Alvarez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvarez throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Duffy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joel Alvarez over Joe Duffy. The model gives Alvarez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brett Johns (5-2) taking on Montel Jackson (9-3). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Jackson is rated at 1538 — 187 points above Johns's 1350. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jackson has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Johns's wrestler game against Jackson's knockout artist approach. Johns looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jackson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montel Jackson over Brett Johns. We're leaning Jackson here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Amir Albazi (5-2) taking on Malcolm Gordon (2-5). Gordon is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Albazi is rated at 1342 — 576 points above Gordon's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Albazi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gordon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gordon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amir Albazi over Malcolm Gordon. The model gives Albazi a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Arman Tsarukyan (10-2) taking on Davi Ramos (4-3).

Tsarukyan is rated at 1898 — 624 points above Ramos's 1274. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Tsarukyan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Tsarukyan's striker game against Ramos's wrestler approach. Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach, while Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan over Davi Ramos. We're leaning Tsarukyan here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Serghei Spivac (9-6) taking on Carlos Felipe (3-2). Spivac is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Spivac is rated at 1490 — 358 points above Felipe's 1132. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Felipe has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spivac throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Felipe has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Serghei Spivac over Carlos Felipe. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Spivac at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.