UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Saturday, May 9, 2020·Jacksonville, Florida, USA
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightMISS
Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO (R5)
Gaethje 46%54% Ferguson
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -195(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ferguson)
BantamweightHIT
Henry Cejudo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cejudo 55%45% Cruz
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +384(favors Cejudo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Cejudo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Cruz)
HeavyweightHIT
Francis Ngannou won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ngannou 72%28% Rozenstruik
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +425(favors Ngannou)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Rozenstruik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rozenstruik)
FeatherweightHIT
Calvin Kattar won by KO/TKO (R2)
Kattar 54%46% Stephens
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +83(favors Kattar)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Kattar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Stephens)
HeavyweightHIT
Greg Hardy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hardy 75%25% Castro
STRONG
→Elo gap: -1(favors Castro)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Castro)
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pettis 59%41% Cerrone
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Cerrone)
HeavyweightMISS
Aleksei Oleinik won by Decision - Split (R3)
Oleinik 27%73% Werdum
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -228(favors Werdum)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Oleinik)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Carla Esparza won by Decision - Split (R3)
Esparza 62%38% Waterson-Gomez
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Esparza)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Esparza)
WelterweightHIT
Vicente Luque won by KO/TKO (R3)
Luque 65%35% Price
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +157(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Price)
FeatherweightHIT
Bryce Mitchell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mitchell 78%22% Rosa
STRONG
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Mitchell)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Rosa)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Spann won by Decision - Split (R3)
Spann 68%32% Alvey
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +428(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Spann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Spann)