UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Justin Gaethje (9-5) taking on Tony Ferguson (15-8). Ferguson will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 782 points above Ferguson's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gaethje's striker game against Ferguson's all-rounder approach. Gaethje brings a versatile approach, while Ferguson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferguson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Justin Gaethje. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ferguson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Henry Cejudo (10-5) taking on Dominick Cruz (7-2). Cruz is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Cruz carries a modest Elo edge (1446 to 1416), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Cejudo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cruz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cruz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cejudo throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Henry Cejudo over Dominick Cruz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cejudo at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Francis Ngannou (11-2) taking on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5). Ngannou is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 763 points above Rozenstruik's 1385. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Ngannou is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rozenstruik brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Ngannou the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rozenstruik throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rozenstruik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ngannou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francis Ngannou over Jairzinho Rozenstruik. We're leaning Ngannou here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Calvin Kattar (7-7) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Kattar is rated at 1231 — 291 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kattar throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Kattar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Calvin Kattar over Jeremy Stephens. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kattar at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Greg Hardy (4-4) taking on Yorgan De Castro (1-2). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Hardy is rated at 958 — 153 points above Castro's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Castro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Greg Hardy over Yorgan De Castro. The model is firm on this one: Hardy at 75%.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (10-9) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 458 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pettis's all-rounder game against Cerrone's knockout artist approach. Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Cerrone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Pettis over Donald Cerrone. The model gives Pettis a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Aleksei Oleinik (9-7) taking on Fabricio Werdum (11-6). Oleinik will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Werdum is rated at 1495 — 422 points above Oleinik's 1073. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oleinik is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Werdum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oleinik the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Werdum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Aleksei Oleinik. We're leaning Werdum here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Carla Esparza (10-5) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8).

Esparza is rated at 1274 — 367 points above Waterson-Gomez's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Waterson-Gomez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Waterson-Gomez throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Esparza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carla Esparza over Michelle Waterson-Gomez. The model gives Esparza a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Niko Price (8-9).

Luque is rated at 1250 — 434 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Luque's all-rounder game against Price's knockout artist approach. Luque is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Price is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Luque has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Niko Price. The model gives Luque a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Bryce Mitchell (8-3) taking on Charles Rosa (5-7).

Mitchell is rated at 1355 — 538 points above Rosa's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Charles Rosa. The model is firm on this one: Mitchell at 78%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Spann (8-6) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1). Spann is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Spann is rated at 1116 — 382 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Spann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spann throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Spann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Spann over Sam Alvey. We're leaning Spann here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.