UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Saturday, March 14, 2020·Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightMISS
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R3)
Oliveira 44%56% Lee
LEANMarket: 44% (-0.0% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +6(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Lee)
WelterweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by KO/TKO (R1)
Burns 61%39% Maia
LEANMarket: 58% (+2.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -143(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Burns)
LightweightHIT
Renato Moicano won by Submission (R1)
Moicano 86%14% Hadzovic
STRONGMarket: 79% (+6.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +86(favors Moicano)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Moicano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Moicano)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Nikita Krylov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Krylov 55%45% Walker
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+14.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Krylov)
LightweightHIT
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 67%33% Makdessi
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-4.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +132(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Trinaldo)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Moreno won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moreno 62%38% Formiga
LEANMarket: 37% (+24.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -215(favors Formiga)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Formiga)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Amanda Ribas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ribas 89%11% Markos
STRONGMarket: 89% (+0.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +176(favors Ribas)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Ribas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Ribas)
WelterweightHIT
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 63%37% Kunchenko
LEAN
→Elo gap: +175(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Santos)
Bantamweight
Yahya 27%73% Barzola
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (-5.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +120(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Barzola)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Barzola)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Maryna Moroz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moroz 61%39% Silva
LEANMarket: 40% (+21.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -142(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Moroz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Moroz)
FlyweightMISS
David Dvorak won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dvorak 44%56% Silva
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Silva)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Bea Malecki won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Malecki 57%43% Hardy
LEAN
→Elo gap: +188(favors Malecki)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Malecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Hardy)