UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Saturday, March 14, 2020·Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil·12 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✗✓✓✗✓✓✓✓✓✗✓
Main Card
LightweightMISS
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R3)
Oliveira 47%53% Lee
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+2.6% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -78(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Lee)
WelterweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by KO/TKO (R1)
Burns 59%41% Maia
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 58% (+0.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -180(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Burns)
LightweightHIT
Renato Moicano won by Submission (R1)
Moicano 88%12% Hadzovic
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+8.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +134(favors Moicano)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Moicano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Moicano)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Nikita Krylov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Krylov 49%51% Walker
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+8.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +28(favors Krylov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Krylov)
LightweightHIT
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 67%33% Makdessi
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-5.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +223(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Trinaldo)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Moreno won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moreno 61%39% Formiga
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 37% (+24.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -233(favors Formiga)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Formiga)
Prelims
Women's StrawweightHIT
Amanda Ribas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ribas 92%8% Markos
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 89% (+2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +300(favors Ribas)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Ribas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Ribas)
WelterweightHIT
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 60%40% Kunchenko
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +192(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Santos)
Bantamweight
Yahya 23%77% Barzola
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
STRONGMarket: 32% (-9.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +86(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Barzola)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Barzola)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Maryna Moroz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moroz 57%43% Silva
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 40% (+16.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -221(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Moroz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Moroz)
FlyweightMISS
David Dvorak won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dvorak 48%52% Silva
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Silva)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Bea Malecki won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Malecki 74%26% Hardy
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +235(favors Malecki)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Malecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Hardy)