UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (25-11) taking on Kevin Lee (11-8). Lee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oliveira is rated at 1974 — 602 points above Lee's 1373. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Lee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Lee over Charles Oliveira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lee at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-9) taking on Demian Maia (22-11). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Maia.

Burns carries a modest Elo edge (1542 to 1506), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Demian Maia. The model gives Burns a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Renato Moicano (13-7) taking on Damir Hadzovic (4-6). Moicano is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Moicano is rated at 1641 — 705 points above Hadzovic's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hadzovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Damir Hadzovic. The model is firm on this one: Moicano at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Moicano at 79% implied while our model sees 88% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (12-9) taking on Johnny Walker (8-6). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Walker carries a modest Elo edge (1552 to 1472), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Krylov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Walker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Krylov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Krylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Walker over Nikita Krylov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Walker at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Krylov at 40% implied while our model sees 49% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-8) taking on John Makdessi (11-9).

Trinaldo is rated at 1423 — 342 points above Makdessi's 1080. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Trinaldo's all-rounder game against Makdessi's striker approach. Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Makdessi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over John Makdessi. We're leaning Trinaldo here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for Trinaldo, but our model sees only 67%. That 5-point gap favoring Makdessi is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-7-2) taking on Jussier Formiga (9-7). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Moreno at 1417 versus Formiga at 1271. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Formiga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Jussier Formiga. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moreno at 37% implied while our model sees 61% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Ribas (7-6) taking on Randa Markos (7-10-1). Ribas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ribas is rated at 1163 — 162 points above Markos's 1001. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribas throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Randa Markos. The model is firm on this one: Ribas at 92%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-6-1) taking on Aleksei Kunchenko (2-2). Santos is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Santos at 1215, Kunchenko at 1185. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kunchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Aleksei Kunchenko. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-6-1) taking on Enrique Barzola (6-3-1). Barzola will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Yahya at 1127, Barzola at 1106. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barzola throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Barzola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Barzola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Enrique Barzola over Rani Yahya. The model is firm on this one: Barzola at 77%. The market implies 32% for Yahya, but our model sees only 23%. That 9-point gap favoring Barzola is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maryna Moroz (6-6) taking on Mayra Bueno Silva (5-6-1).

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1070 to 1018), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Moroz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moroz throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moroz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Moroz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maryna Moroz over Mayra Bueno Silva. The model gives Moroz a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moroz at 40% implied while our model sees 57% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features David Dvorak (3-3) taking on Bruno Silva (5-5). Dvorak will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Silva is rated at 1157 — 178 points above Dvorak's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Dvorak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bruno Silva over David Dvorak. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Bea Malecki (2-1) taking on Veronica Hardy (5-5). Malecki is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Hardy is rated at 1094 — 174 points above Malecki's 921. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malecki throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Malecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bea Malecki over Veronica Hardy. We're leaning Malecki here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.